TG
Tilmann Gneiting
stat.MEmath.STstat.THstat.APstat.MLmath.PRcs.LGepidemiologyphysics.ao-phCOVID-19
On Valency
published · living versionsW_um8fa2yx·v1 · currentpublished
W_xfwfb82t·v1published
W_bwjtv68e·v1published
W_p5pw8bd2·v1published
W_jtuersd9·v1published
Preprints & journals
46 papers in the corpus · 2001–2026Hierarchies of Calibration: Classification meets Regression2606.03245v1 · Johannes Resin, Lu Yang, Tilmann Gneiting2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Assessing Monotone Dependence: Area Under the Curve Meets Rank Correlation2510.17994v2 · Eva-Maria Walz, Andreas Eberl, Tilmann Gneiting2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output2506.03744v1 · Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus et al.2025 · 1 citationarXiv
Enhancing the statistical evaluation of earthquake forecasts -- An application to Italy2405.10712v2 · Jonas R. Brehmer, Kristof Kraus, Tilmann Gneiting et al.2024 · 6 citationsSeismological Research Letters 96 (3): 1966-1988 (2025)
Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.38709852 · Lopez, Velma K, Cramer, Estee Y, Pagano, Robert et al.2024 · 40 citationsPLoS computational biology. 2024;20(5):e1011200
Physics-based vs. data-driven 24-hour probabilistic forecasts of precipitation for northern tropical Africa2401.03746v1 · Eva-Maria Walz, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink et al.2024 · 5 citationsarXiv
Decompositions of the mean continuous ranked probability score2311.14122v1 · Sebastian Arnold, Eva-Maria Walz, Johanna Ziegel et al.2023 · 12 citationsarXiv
Evaluating Probabilistic Classifiers: The Triptych2301.10803v1 · Timo Dimitriadis, Tilmann Gneiting, Alexander I. Jordan et al.2023 · 16 citationsarXiv
Easy Uncertainty Quantification (EasyUQ): Generating Predictive Distributions from Single-valued Model Output2212.08376v2 · Eva-Maria Walz, Alexander Henzi, Johanna Ziegel et al.2022 · 11 citationsarXiv
National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021.36352249 · Bracher, Johannes, Wolffram, Daniel, Deuschel, Jannik et al.2024 · 19 citationsCommunications medicine. 2022;2(1):136
Correction: Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format.36197847 · Bracher, Johannes, Ray, Evan L, Gneiting, Tilmann et al.2022 · 4 citationsPLoS computational biology. 2022;18(10):e1010592
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.35394862 · Cramer, Estee Y, Ray, Evan L, Lopez, Velma K et al.2022 · 309 citationsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022;119(15):e2113561119
A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.34453047 · Bracher, J, Wolffram, D, Deuschel, J et al.2021 · 84 citationsNature communications. 2021;12(1):5173
Regression Diagnostics meets Forecast Evaluation: Conditional Calibration, Reliability Diagrams, and Coefficient of Determination2108.03210v3 · Tilmann Gneiting, Johannes Resin2021 · 57 citationsElectron. J. Stat. 17 (2023) 3226-3286
Comparative evaluation of point process forecasts2103.11884v2 · Jonas Brehmer, Tilmann Gneiting, Marcus Herrmann et al.2021 · 6 citationsarXiv
Stable reliability diagrams for probabilistic classifiers.33597296 · Dimitriadis, Timo, Gneiting, Tilmann, Jordan, Alexander I2021 · 84 citationsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2021;118(8)
Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format.33577550 · Bracher, Johannes, Ray, Evan L, Gneiting, Tilmann et al.2021 · 293 citationsPLoS computational biology. 2021;17(2):e1008618
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US10.1101/2021.02.03.21250974v3 · Cramer, E. Y., Ray, E. L., Lopez, V. K. et al.2021 · 71 citationsmedRxiv
Scoring Interval Forecasts: Equal-Tailed, Shortest, and Modal Interval2007.05709v2 · Jonas Brehmer, Tilmann Gneiting2020 · 29 citationsBernoulli, Volume 27 (3), 2021, 1993-2010
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) movies, universal ROC (UROC) curves, and coefficient of predictive ability (CPA)1912.01956v3 · Tilmann Gneiting, Eva-Maria Walz2019 · 20 citationsarXiv
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves1809.04808v1 · Tilmann Gneiting, Peter Vogel2018 · 38 citationsarXiv
Properization: Constructing Proper Scoring Rules via Bayes Acts1806.07144v2 · Jonas Brehmer, Tilmann Gneiting2018 · 12 citationsAnnals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Volume 72 (3), 2020, 659-673
Skill of global raw and postprocessed ensemble predictions of rainfall over northern tropical Africa1708.04420v1 · Peter Vogel, Peter Knippertz, Andreas H. Fink et al.2017 · 119 citationsarXiv
When is the mode functional the Bayes classifier?1704.08979v1 · Tilmann Gneiting2017 · 11 citationsarXiv
Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output1608.06802v6 · Fabian Kruger, Sebastian Lerch, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir et al.2016 · 80 citationsarXiv
Forecaster's Dilemma: Extreme Events and Forecast Evaluation1512.09244v1 · Sebastian Lerch, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Francesco Ravazzolo et al.2015 · 155 citationsarXiv
Spatially adaptive, Bayesian estimation for probabilistic temperature forecasts1507.05066v3 · Annette Moller, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Alex Lenkoski et al.2015 · 4 citationsarXiv
Expected Shortfall is jointly elicitable with Value at Risk - Implications for backtesting1507.00244v2 · Tobias Fissler, Johanna F. Ziegel, Tilmann Gneiting2015 · 143 citationsRisk, January 2016, 58-61
Interpretation of point forecasts with unkown directive1506.01917v3 · Patrick Schmidt, Matthias Katzfuß, Tilmann Gneiting2015 · 0 citationsarXiv
Gaussian Random Particles with Flexible Hausdorff Dimension1502.01750v3 · Linda V. Hansen, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Evgeni Ovcharov et al.2015 · 18 citationsarXiv
Copula Calibration1307.7650v1 · Johanna F. Ziegel, Tilmann Gneiting2013 · 0 citationsarXiv
Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling1302.7149v2 · Roman Schefzik, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Tilmann Gneiting2013 · 273 citationsStatistical Science 2013, Vol. 28, No. 4, 616-640on Valency
Using proper divergence functions to evaluate climate models1301.5927v2 · Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Tilmann Gneiting, Nadine Gissibl2013 · 87 citationsarXiv
Section on the special year for mathematics of planet earth (MPE 2013)1301.1191v1 · Tilmann Gneiting2013 · 0 citationsAnnals of Applied Statistics 2012, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1349-1351
The affinely invariant distance correlation1210.2482v2 · Johannes Dueck, Dominic Edelmann, Tilmann Gneiting et al.2012 · 34 citationsBernoulli 2014, Vol. 20, No. 4, 2305-2330on Valency
On the Cover-Hart Inequality: What's a Sample of Size One Worth?1206.3381v1 · Tilmann Gneiting2012 · 0 citationsarXiv
Ensemble model output statistics for wind vectors1201.2612v1 · Nina Schuhen, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Tilmann Gneiting2012 · 87 citationsarXivon Valency
Strictly and non-strictly positive definite functions on spheres1111.7077v5 · Tilmann Gneiting2011 · 294 citationsBernoulli 2013, Vol. 19, No. 4, 1327-1349on Valency
Combining Predictive Distributions1106.1638v1 · Tilmann Gneiting, Roopesh Ranjan2011 · 216 citationsarXiv
Local proper scoring rules of order two1102.5031v2 · Werner Ehm, Tilmann Gneiting2011 · 38 citationsAnnals of Statistics 2012, Vol. 40, No. 1, 609-637
Estimators of Fractal Dimension: Assessing the Roughness of Time Series and Spatial Data1101.1444v2 · Tilmann Gneiting, Hana Sevc'ikov'a, Donald B. Percival2011 · 267 citationsStatistical Science 2012, Vol. 27, No. 2, 247-277
Predicting Inflation: Professional Experts Versus No-Change Forecasts1010.2318v1 · Tilmann Gneiting, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir2010 · 13 citationsarXiv
Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts0912.0902v2 · Tilmann Gneiting2009 · 1,169 citationsarXiv
Predictive model assessment for count data.19432783 · Czado, Claudia, Gneiting, Tilmann, Held, Leonhard2010 · 467 citationsBiometrics. 2009;65(4):1254-61
Atmospheric science. Weather forecasting with ensemble methods.16224011 · Gneiting, Tilmann, Raftery, Adrian E2005 · 634 citationsScience (New York, N.Y.). 2005;310(5746):248-9
Stochastic models which separate fractal dimension and Hurst effectphysics/0109031v1 · Tilmann Gneiting, Martin Schlather2001 · 444 citationsSIAM Review 46 (2004), 269-282on Valency
Career total: 224 works. 46 are in this corpus.
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