VL
Valerio Lucarini
physics.ao-phcond-mat.stat-mechnlin.CDphysics.flu-dynphysics.geo-phphysics.data-anmath.DSphysics.comp-phmath.MPmath-ph
On Valency
published · living versionsW_vvv7vm74·v1 · currentpublished
Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping
with Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch, Derek DeSantis, Parvathi Kooloth +3
1 version
W_wuq2my5f·v1published
Preprints & journals
172 papers in the corpus · 1998–2026Clarifying tipping terminology2610.14930v2 · Niklas Boers, Robert E. Kopp, Peter Ashwin et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
A Response Theory Probe for Learned Stochastic AI Simulators, Tested on Lorenz-632610.06798v2 · Joao Boger, Simon Driscoll, Niccolo Zagli et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Linear Response Theory for Jump-Driven Stochastic Systems: Transient Statistics and Escape Dynamics2609.12013v2 · Qingyan Meng, Jinqiao Duan, Valerio Lucarini2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Ruelle--Pollicott Theory for Metastable Systems: A Unified Framework for Tipping Transitions2609.02614v1 · Mickael D. Chekroun, Valerio Lucarini2026 · 0 citationsarXivon Valency
Data-driven analysis of metastability in a stochastic bistable system.42770897 · Banerjee, Ankan, Santos Gutiérrez, Manuel, Moroney, John et al.2026 · 0 citationsChaos (Woodbury, N.Y.). 2026;36(9)
Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping2608.14716v1 · Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch, Derek DeSantis et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXivon Valency
Beyond Critical Slowing Down: Slow Modes, Extreme Tails, and Field Decoherence in Tipping Transitions2607.11350v2 · Mickael D. Chekroun, Valerio Lucarini2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Interpretable and equation-free response theory for complex systems.42312706 · Lucarini, Valerio2026 · 4 citationsPhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences. 2026;384(2322)
Global stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation: edge state, long transients and boundary crisis under CO2 forcing.42312708 · Börner, Reyk, Mehling, Oliver, von Hardenberg, Jost et al.2026 · 5 citationsPhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences. 2026;384(2322)
Climate network characterization of the AMOC edge state2606.08623v1 · Laure Moinat, Reyk Borner, Valerio Lucarini et al.2026 · 1 citationarXiv
Ulam Approximation for Nonautonomous Systems: Equivariant Measures and Linear Response2606.02889v2 · Stefano Galatolo, Valerio Lucarini, Isaia Nisoli2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
A mathematical framework for dynamic emergent constraints in climate science2605.30684v1 · Francesco Ragone, Valerio Lucarini2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Comparison principles and long time behavior for a diffusive Energy Balance Model with vertical resolution2604.20339v1 · Piermarco Cannarsa, Valerio Lucarini, Patrick Martinez et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Nonequilibrium ensemble averages using nonlinear response relations2603.26275v1 · Manuel Santos-Gutierrez, Valerio Lucarini, John Moroney et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
A Mathematical Framework for Linear Response Theory for Nonautonomous Systems2603.19509v4 · Stefano Galatolo, Valerio Lucarini2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Geometric early warning indicator from stochastic separatrix structure in a random two-state ecosystem model2603.08861v2 · Yuzhu Shi, Larissa Serdukova, Yayun Zheng et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Tipping points in complex ecological systems2602.20702v2 · Alan Hastings, Sergei Petrovskii, Valerio Lucarini et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Linear Response and Optimal Fingerprinting for Nonautonomous Systems2602.08022v3 · Valerio Lucarini2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Kolmogorov modes and linear response of jump-diffusion models.41264936 · Chekroun, Mickaël D, Zagli, Niccolò, Lucarini, Valerio2025 · 3 citationsReports on progress in physics. Physical Society (Great Britain). 2025;88(12)
Deficiency of equation-finding approach to data-driven modeling of dynamical systems2509.03769v1 · Zheng-Meng Zhai, Valerio Lucarini, Ying-Cheng Lai2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
A General Framework for Linking Free and Forced Fluctuations via Koopmanism2506.16446v1 · Valerio Lucarini, Manuel Santos Gutierrez, John Moroney et al.2025 · 3 citationsarXiv
Time-lagged recurrence: A data-driven method to estimate the predictability of dynamical systems.40377987 · Dong, Chenyu, Faranda, Davide, Gualandi, Adriano et al.2025 · 10 citationsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2025;122(20):e2420252122
Contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions via dimensional analysis.40246999 · Alberti, Tommaso, Florindo, Fabio, Rohling, Eelco J et al.2025 · 1 citationScientific reports. 2025;15(1):13224
Spatio-temporal Dynamical Indices for Complex Systems2412.10069v2 · Chenyu Dong, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda et al.2024 · 3 citationsarXiv
Detecting and Attributing Change in Climate and Complex Systems: Foundations, Green's Functions, and Nonlinear Fingerprints.39750329 · Lucarini, Valerio, Chekroun, Mickaël D2025 · 18 citationsPhysical review letters. 2024;133(24):244201
The Typicality of Regimes Associated with Northern Hemisphere Heatwaves2410.12179v1 · Christopher C.Chapman, Didier P. Monselesan, James S. Risbey et al.2024 · 4 citationsarXiv
The role of edge states for early-warning of tipping points2410.16277v2 · Johannes Lohmann, Alfred B. Hansen, Alessandro Lovo et al.2024 · 10 citationsarXiv
Bridging the Gap between Koopmanism and Response Theory: Using Natural Variability to Predict Forced Response2410.01622v2 · Niccolo Zagli, Matthew Colbrook, Valerio Lucarini et al.2024 · 4 citationsarXiv
Melancholia States of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation2405.13988v2 · Johannes Lohmann, Valerio Lucarini2024 · 7 citationsarXiv
Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.38517955 · Lohmann, Johannes, Dijkstra, Henk A, Jochum, Markus et al.2024 · 59 citationsScience advances. 2024;10(12):eadi4253
Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience.38491626 · Ramirez, Jorge M, Restrepo, Juan, Lucarini, Valerio et al.2024 · 1 citationPhysical review. E. 2024;109(2-1):024413
Saddle avoidance of noise-induced transitions in multiscale systems2311.10231v4 · Reyk Borner, Ryan Deeley, Raphael Romer et al.2023 · 14 citationsarXiv
A strategy to compute convective timescales of the Indian monsoon with the WRF model2310.15871v1 · Lucy G. Recchia, Valerio Lucarini2023 · 0 citationsarXiv
Agnostic detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere: from blockings to teleconnections2309.06833v2 · Sebastian Springer, Vera Melinda Galfi, Alessandro Laio et al.2023 · 12 citationsarXiv
Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model2308.16251v2 · Oliver Mehling, Reyk Borner, Valerio Lucarini2023 · 22 citationsPhysica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 459 (2024), 134043
A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions.37438407 · Rousseau, Denis-Didier, Bagniewski, Witold, Lucarini, Valerio2023 · 15 citationsScientific reports. 2023;13(1):11290
Heterogeneity of the Attractor of the Lorenz '96 Model: Lyapunov Analysis, Unstable Periodic Orbits, and Shadowing Properties2306.04336v2 · Chiara Cecilia Maiocchi, Valerio Lucarini, Andrey Gritsun et al.2023 · 11 citationsarXiv
Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere2304.11143v2 · Melanie Kobras, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, Valerio Lucarini2023 · 1 citationarXiv
Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann's program and beyond2303.12009v3 · Valerio Lucarini, Mickael Chekroun2023 · 41 citationsarXiv
Response Theory Identifies Reaction Coordinates and Explains Critical Phenomena in Noisy Interacting Systems2303.09047v2 · Niccolo Zagli, Valerio Lucarini, Grigorios Pavliotis2023 · 6 citationsJ. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 57 325004 , 2024
Scale dependence of fractal dimension in deterministic and stochastic Lorenz-63 systems.36859231 · Alberti, T, Faranda, D, Lucarini, V et al.2023 · 21 citationsChaos (Woodbury, N.Y.). 2023;33(2):023144
Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: long time behaviour and greenhouse effect2211.15430v2 · Piermarco Cannarsa, Valerio Lucarini, Patrick Martinez et al.2022 · 8 citationsarXiv
Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate complexity climate model2211.09212v2 · Lucy Recchia, Valerio Lucarini2022 · 12 citationsarXiv
Emergence of universal scaling in weather extreme events2209.02292v1 · Qing Yao, Jingfang Fan, Jun Meng et al.2022 · 2 citationsarXiv
Dimension reduction of noisy interacting systems2207.07904v3 · Niccolo Zagli, Grigorios A. Pavliotis, Valerio Lucarini et al.2022 · 11 citationsarXiv
Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave2206.06197v2 · Valerio Lucarini, Vera Melinda Galfi, Gabriele Messori et al.2022 · 42 citationsarXiv
Nonequilibrium ensembles for the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations.35854520 · Margazoglou, G, Biferale, L, Cencini, M et al.2022 · 5 citationsPhysical review. E. 2022;105(6-2):065110
On Some Aspects of the Response to Stochastic and Deterministic Forcings2205.08896v2 · Manuel Santos Guti'errez, Valerio Lucarini2022 · 29 citationsarXiv
Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets.35364825 · Maiocchi, Chiara Cecilia, Lucarini, Valerio, Gritsun, Andrey2022 · 13 citationsChaos (Woodbury, N.Y.). 2022;32(3):033129
Meridional energy transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers2112.13075v2 · Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi et al.2021 · 16 citationsarXiv
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