EB
Elizabeth Barnes
physics.ao-phcs.LGcs.AIClimateOceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and MeteorologyPhysical Sciences and Mathematicsstat.MLclimate changeEarth SciencesAtmospheric Sciences
On Valency
published · living versionsW_3seyyh2p·v1 · currentpublished
Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code
with Mark Chen, Jerry Tworek, Heewoo Jun, Qiming Yuan +53
1 version
Preprints & journals
55 papers in the corpus · 2013–2026Extremes on Rewind: Generating 1,000-Member Ensembles Initialized at a Final Condition2608.19008v1 · Jerry Lin, Mu-Ting Chien, Mansi Sakarvadia et al.2026 · 0 citationsarXivon Valency
Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?2608.08954v1 · Lucas J. Howard, Elizabeth A. Barnes2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Multi-Year-to-Decadal Temperature Prediction using a Machine Learning Model-Analog Framework2502.17583v2 · M. A. Fernandez, Elizabeth A. Barnes2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
Precipitation diffusion downscaling and application to out-of-distribution simulations with and without stratospheric aerosol injection2605.23776v1 · Cameron Dong, James W. Hurrell, Elizabeth A. Barnes2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
AI-informed model-analogs for understanding subseasonal-to-seasonal jet stream and North American temperature predictability2506.14022v3 · Jacob B. Landsberg, Matthew Newman, Elizabeth A. Barnes2025 · 0 citationsMachine Learning: Earth 1 (1), ae4805 (2026)
Am I Confused or Is This Confusing?: Deep Ensembles for ENSO Uncertainty Quantification2512.17153v2 · Devin M. McAfee, Elizabeth A. Barnes2025 · 0 citationsMcAfee, Devin M. and Elizabeth A. Barnes (2026). "Am I Confused or Is This Confusing?: Deep Ensembles for ENSO Uncertainty Quantification." Machine Learning: Earth
Watch an AI Weather Model Learn (and Unlearn) Tropical Cyclones2603.20541v1 · Rebecca Baiman, Ankur Mahesh, Elizabeth A. Barnes2026 · 0 citationsarXiv
Forecasting the Future with Yesterday's Climate: Temperature Bias in AI Weather and Climate Models2509.22359v2 · Jacob B. Landsberg, Elizabeth A. Barnes2025 · 2 citationsarXiv
Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing.40493184 · Van Loon, Senne, Rugenstein, Maria, Barnes, Elizabeth A2025 · 6 citationsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2025;122(24):e2425445122
Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fragile Opportunity for AI Safety2507.11473v2 · Tomek Korbak, Mikita Balesni, Elizabeth Barnes et al.2025 · 2 citationsarXiv
Digestible Pieces: comparing three options for partitioning the Northeast Pacific Coast for S2S sea surface height prediction2510.18133v1 · Laura Thapa, Marybeth Arcodia, Elizabeth A. Barnes2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
How does an AI Weather Model Learn to Forecast Extreme Weather?2509.10639v1 · Rebecca Baiman, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Ankur Mahesh2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity2507.09089v2 · Joel Becker, Nate Rush, Elizabeth Barnes et al.2025 · 11 citationsarXiv
Reanalysis-based Global Radiative Response to Sea Surface Temperature Patterns: Evaluating the Ai2 Climate Emulator2502.10893v2 · Senne Van Loon, Maria Rugenstein, Elizabeth A. Barnes2025 · 5 citationsGeophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL115432
Uncertainty-permitting machine learning reveals sources of dynamic sea level predictability across daily-to-seasonal timescales2502.11293v2 · Andrew Brettin, Laure Zanna, Elizabeth A. Barnes2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
An explainable machine learning prediction system for early-warning of heat stress on Florida’s Coral Reefx51t7n · Marybeth Arcodia, Richard Karp, Elizabeth Barnes2025 · 0 citationsEarthArXiv
RE-Bench: Evaluating frontier AI R&D capabilities of language model agents against human experts2411.15114v2 · Hjalmar Wijk, Tao Lin, Joel Becker et al.2024 · 2 citationsarXiv
Machine learning-based extreme event attribution.39167638 · Trok, Jared T, Barnes, Elizabeth A, Davenport, Frances V et al.2025 · 52 citationsScience advances. 2024;10(34):eadl3242
Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis on subseasonal-to-interannual timescales in the deep-learning climate emulator ACE2x5nf15 · Mu-Ting Chien, Elizabeth Barnes, Eric Maloney2025 · 1 citationEarthArXiv
Turning Up the Heat: Assessing 2-m Temperature Forecast Errors in AI Weather Prediction Models During Heat Waves2504.21195v1 · Kelsey E. Ennis, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Marybeth C. Arcodia et al.2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
HCAST: Human-Calibrated Autonomy Software Tasks2503.17354v1 · David Rein, Joel Becker, Amy Deng et al.2025 · 0 citationsarXiv
Predicting Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors using a Probabilistic Neural Network2503.09840v1 · M.A. Fernandez, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Randal J. Barnes et al.2025 · 1 citationarXiv
Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning-Based Earth System Models2410.19882v2 · Paul A. Ullrich, Elizabeth A. Barnes, William D. Collins et al.2024 · 7 citationsarXiv
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networksx5zb0j · Patrick Keys, Elizabeth Barnes, Noah Diffenbaugh et al.2024 · 0 citationsEarthArXiv
Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios.38637548 · Hueholt, Daniel M, Barnes, Elizabeth A, Hurrell, James W et al.2024 · 21 citationsNature communications. 2024;15(1):3332
Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area.33681404 · Brey, Steven J, Barnes, Elizabeth A, Pierce, Jeffrey R et al.2024 · 69 citationsEarth's future. 2020;9(2):e2020EF001645
Evaluating Language-Model Agents on Realistic Autonomous Tasks2312.11671v2 · Megan Kinniment, Lucas Jun Koba Sato, Haoxing Du et al.2023 · 14 citationsarXiv
Environmental Conditions, Ignition Type, and Air Quality Impacts of Wildfires in the Southeastern and Western United States.31008140 · Brey, Steven J, Barnes, Elizabeth A, Pierce, Jeffrey R et al.2023 · 88 citationsEarth's future. 2018;6(10):1442-1456
Separating Internal and Forced Contributions to Near Term SST Predictability in the CESM2-LEx5bd5j · Emily Gordon, Elizabeth Barnes, Frances Davenport2023 · 1 citationEarthArXiv
Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models2206.04615v3 · Aarohi Srivastava, Abhinav Rastogi, Abhishek Rao et al.2022 · 565 citationsTransactions on Machine Learning Research, May/2022, https://openreview.net/forum?id=uyTL5Bvosj
Assessing Decadal Variability of Subseasonal Forecasts of Opportunity using Explainable AIx5gq1c · Marybeth Arcodia, Elizabeth Barnes, Kirsten Mayer et al.2023 · 2 citationsEarthArXiv
Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached.36716375 · Diffenbaugh, Noah S, Barnes, Elizabeth A2023 · 177 citationsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2023;120(6):e2207183120
Identifying the regional emergence of climate patterns in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 simulationsx5394z · Zachary Labe, Elizabeth Barnes, James Hurrell2023 · 0 citationsEarthArXiv
Using Neural Networks to Learn the Jet Stream Forced Response from Natural Variability2301.00496v1 · Charlotte Connolly, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Pedram Hassanzadeh et al.2023 · 8 citationsarXiv
Internal variability and forcing influence model-satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.36399545 · Po-Chedley, Stephen, Fasullo, John T, Siler, Nicholas et al.2022 · 34 citationsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022;119(47):e2209431119
Potential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment.36166478 · Keys, Patrick W, Barnes, Elizabeth A, Diffenbaugh, Noah S et al.2022 · 46 citationsProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2022;119(40):e2210036119
Investigating the fidelity of explainable artificial intelligence methods for applications of convolutional neural networks in geoscience2202.03407v2 · Antonios Mamalakis, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Imme Ebert-Uphoff2022 · 101 citations2022, Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems (AMS)
Carefully choose the baseline: Lessons learned from applying XAI attribution methods for regression tasks in geoscience2208.09473v1 · Antonios Mamalakis, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Imme Ebert-Uphoff2022 · 48 citationsarXiv
Sinh-arcsinh-normal distributions to add uncertainty to neural network regression tasks: applications to tropical cyclone intensity forecastsx51649 · Elizabeth Barnes, Randal Barnes, Mark DeMaria2022 · 6 citationsEarthArXiv
Neural Network Attribution Methods for Problems in Geoscience: A Novel Synthetic Benchmark Dataset2103.10005v2 · Antonios Mamalakis, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, Elizabeth A. Barnes2021 · 105 citationsEnvironmental Data Science, 1, E8 (2022)
Understanding Agent Incentives using Causal Influence Diagrams. Part I: Single Action Settings1902.09980v7 · Tom Everitt, Pedro A. Ortega, Elizabeth Barnes et al.2019 · 21 citationsarXiv
Controlled abstention neural networks for identifying skillful predictions for regression problems2104.08236v1 · Elizabeth A. Barnes, Randal J. Barnes2021 · 27 citationsarXiv
Controlled abstention neural networks for identifying skillful predictions for classification problems2104.08281v1 · Elizabeth A. Barnes, Randal J. Barnes2021 · 13 citationsarXiv
Adding Uncertainty to Neural Network Regression Tasks in the Geosciences2109.07250v1 · Elizabeth A. Barnes, Randal J. Barnes, Nicolas Gordillo2021 · 11 citationsarXiv
Will Artificial Intelligence supersede Earth System and Climate Models?2101.09126v1 · Christopher Irrgang, Niklas Boers, Maike Sonnewald et al.2021 · 313 citationsarXiv
Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code2107.03374v2 · Mark Chen, Jerry Tworek, Heewoo Jun et al.2021 · 1,468 citationsarXivon Valency
A machine-learning approach to human footprint index estimation with applications to sustainable development10.1101/2020.09.06.284414v3 · Keys, P. W., Barnes, E. A., Carter, N.2020 · 55 citationsbioRxiv
Identifying Opportunities for Skillful Weather Prediction with Interpretable Neural Networks2012.07830v1 · Elizabeth A. Barnes, Kirsten Mayer, Benjamin Toms et al.2020 · 12 citationsarXiv
Physically Interpretable Neural Networks for the Geosciences: Applications to Earth System Variability1912.01752v2 · Benjamin A. Toms, Elizabeth A. Barnes, Imme Ebert-Uphoff2019 · 326 citationsarXiv
Toward Trustworthy AI Development: Mechanisms for Supporting Verifiable Claims2004.07213v2 · Miles Brundage, Shahar Avin, Jasmine Wang et al.2020 · 301 citationsarXiv
Career total: 390 works. 55 are in this corpus.Showing the 50 most recent.
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