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Sound-Horizon-Agnostic Forecast for Constraints on H0H_0 and ΣmνΣm_ν from BAO, CMB Lensing, Supernovae and LSST-like Galaxy Lensing

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Abstract · v1

We present a sound-horizon-agnostic forecast for constraints on the Hubble constant H0H_0 and the sum of the neutrino masses ΣmνΣm_ν from a combination of LSST-like galaxy weak lensing, Simons-Observatory-like CMB lensing, the completed DESI BAO program, and expanded supernova samples. Treating the sound horizon at baryon drag rdr_d as a free parameter, the method provides a consistency test of ΛΛCDM without relying on the standard early-Universe calibration of rdr_d. The analysis incorporates realistic galaxy weak-lensing systematics, explicitly marginalizing over photometric-redshift calibration, multiplicative shear biases, intrinsic alignments, and baryonic feedback, and extends the CMB-lensing analysis to Lmax⁡=5000L_{\max}=5000. For fixed ΣmνΣm_ν, we forecast uncertainties of σ(H0)≃1.5σ(H_0)\simeq 1.5 km/s/Mpc with our least informative prior set, σ(H0)≃1.3σ(H_0)\simeq 1.3 km/s/Mpc with more restrictive priors, and σ(H0)≃0.7σ(H_0)\simeq 0.7 km/s/Mpc with an additional informative prior on the amplitude of primordial fluctuations AsA_s. Allowing ΣmνΣm_ν to vary weakens the H0H_0 constraints, while still yielding a forecast 95% CL upper limit of about 0.4 eV on ΣmνΣm_ν. We also clarify the scope of the rdr_d-agnostic approach through validation tests using mock data from modified recombination and early dark energy models. The method recovers unbiased constraints on H0H_0 for the former but not the latter, highlighting its dependence on assumptions about early-Universe physics.

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