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Fine-Grained Analysis of Catastrophic Forgetting in Continual Learning via Algorithmic Stability

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Abstract

Understanding catastrophic forgetting, in which learning new tasks degrades performance on previously learned tasks, remains a fundamental challenge in continual learning (CL). Existing theoretical analyses often rely on specific model or task structures and offer limited insight into how iterative optimization affects forgetting. To address this gap, we develop an algorithmic stability framework for expected population forgetting under SGD without prescribing a particular model architecture. Specifically, we decompose forgetting into intra-task and cross-task generalization gaps and empirical forgetting. To bound the generalization gaps, we track how a sample perturbation affects updates within a task and propagates through subsequent tasks. We consider constant, intra-task decaying, and continuously decaying learning-rate schedules. Comparing the two decaying schedules allows us to characterize how restarting learning-rate decay at task boundaries affects the propagation of historical sample perturbations. For empirical forgetting, we derive bounds for all three schedules by retaining cumulative gradient alignment along the optimization trajectory, without requiring convexity. Combining these results yields upper bounds on expected forgetting that capture the effects of training set size, the number of updates per task, the total number of tasks, learning-rate schedules, and cumulative gradient alignment. Finally, we conduct experiments on Split CIFAR-100 and Split MiniImageNet to examine the empirical implications of our theoretical findings.

Introduction

Continual learning (CL) aims to learn from a sequence of non-stationary data streams and tasks over time. However, this classical training paradigm remains vulnerable to a fundamental challenge, known as catastrophic forgetting [1, 2], in which the model exhibits a substantial degradation in performance on previously learned tasks as it adapts to newly introduced tasks.

To mitigate catastrophic forgetting, several empirical methods have been proposed and have achieved promising results [3]. However, the theoretical understanding remains much less developed. Existing analyses have largely focused on the linear regime [4, 5, 6, 7, 8] or the neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime [9, 10, 11]. While linear models yield explicit forgetting bounds, the resulting guarantees depend on the assumed linear structure. NTK-based analyses extend the study to neural networks, but typically rely on infinite-width limits. Moreover, most of these studies analyze forgetting through closed-form solutions to the optimization problem, abstracting away the fine-grained dynamics of iterative updates and yielding coarse bounds. Recently, Zheng et al. [11] analyze forgetting dynamics through NTK gradient flow, which captures more detailed trajectories than conventional static analyses. Taheri et al. [12] characterize forgetting in two-layer quadratic neural networks in the kernel regime, deriving explicit empirical forgetting bounds for orthogonal XOR-cluster tasks and using algorithmic stability to control delayed generalization. These studies provide insights into how forgetting evolves during training, while their guarantees remain tied to specific kernel approximations, network architectures, or task structures. This motivates an analysis of training dynamics, without prescribing a particular network architecture, that tracks both within-task updates and the propagation of their effects across tasks.

In this work, we develop an algorithmic stability analysis of expected forgetting in CL. We quantify forgetting as the expected increase in population risk on historical tasks and decompose it into intra-task generalization gaps (IGG), cross-task generalization gaps (CGG), and empirical forgetting (EF). To bound the generalization terms, we characterize stability under a sample perturbation in either the current task or a historical task. We follow SGD trajectories to track how the perturbation affects updates within that task and propagates through subsequent tasks. This analysis yields generalization bounds for constant, intra-task decaying, and continuously decaying learning rate schedules in the convex setting, and for the two decaying schedules in the non-convex setting. Under intra-task decay, the learning rate decreases from the same initial value within each task, whereas under continuous decay, it continues decreasing across task boundaries. Comparing these schedules allows us to characterize how resetting the learning rate at task boundaries affects the propagation of historical sample perturbations. For EF, we analyze changes in empirical risk on historical tasks along the optimization trajectory, retaining the cumulative inner products between gradients of historical tasks and those of the current task. The EF analysis covers all three learning rate schedules without requiring convexity. Combining these results yields bounds on expected population forgetting that explicitly account for both generalization gaps and empirical risk changes.

As summarized in Table I, the bounds reveal distinct effects of learning-rate scheduling on generalization and empirical forgetting. For convex losses with step sizes at most 2/β2/\beta, the IGG and CGG bounds scale as O(N/n)\mathcal{O}(N/n) under constant

CaseLRIGG ϵi,i\epsilon_{i,i}CGG ϵT,i\epsilon_{T,i}EF ϵ~T,i\tilde{\epsilon}_{T,i}
ConvexC2cL2Nn\frac{2cL^{2}N}{n}2cL2Nn\frac{2cL^{2}N}{n}−GT,i+βc2L22N(T−i)-G_{T,i}+\frac{\beta c^{2}L^{2}}{2}N(T-i)
ID2cL2ln⁡(eN)n\frac{2cL^{2}\ln(eN)}{n}2cL2ln⁡(eN)n\frac{2cL^{2}\ln(eN)}{n}−GT,i+βc2L22(2−1/N)(T−i)-G_{T,i}+\frac{\beta c^{2}L^{2}}{2}(2-1/N)(T-i)
CD2cL2nln⁡(1+1i−1)\frac{2cL^{2}}{n}\ln\left(1+\frac{1}{i-1}\right)2cL2nln⁡(1+1i−1)\frac{2cL^{2}}{n}\ln\left(1+\frac{1}{i-1}\right)−GT,i+βc2L22(1/(iN)−1/(TN))-G_{T,i}+\frac{\beta c^{2}L^{2}}{2}(1/(iN)-1/(TN))
Non-convexID(2cL2)1−pNppn−2L2βn\frac{(2cL^{2})^{1-p}N^{p}}{pn}-\frac{2L^{2}}{\beta n}ep(T−i)KNT−i+1−2L2(eN)cβ(T−i)βne^{p(T-i)}\mathcal{K}_{N T-i+1}-\frac{2L^{2}(eN)^{c\beta(T-i)}}{\beta n}−GT,i+βc2L22(2−1/N)(T−i)-G_{T,i}+\frac{\beta c^{2}L^{2}}{2}(2-1/N)(T-i)
CDa^{a}C11:KiN−(i−1)Nn−2L2βnC_{1}^{1}:\mathcal{K}_{iN}-\frac{(i-1)N}{n}-\frac{2L^{2}}{\beta n}<br>C12:2L2βn[(ii−1)cβ−1]C_{1}^{2}:\frac{2L^{2}}{\beta n}\left[\left(\frac{i}{i-1}\right)^{c\beta}-1\right]C21:KTN−(i−1)Nn−2L2βn(Ti)cβC_{2}^{1}:\mathcal{K}_{TN}-\frac{(i-1)N}{n}-\frac{2L^{2}}{\beta n}\left(\frac{T}{i}\right)^{c\beta}<br>C22:2L2βn[(Ti−1)cβ−(Ti)cβ]C_{2}^{2}:\frac{2L^{2}}{\beta n}\left[\left(\frac{T}{i-1}\right)^{c\beta}-\left(\frac{T}{i}\right)^{c\beta}\right]−GT,i+βc2L22(1/(iN)−1/(TN))-G_{T,i}+\frac{\beta c^{2}L^{2}}{2}(1/(iN)-1/(TN))

Table I. Results for the IGG, CGG, and EF under convex and non-convex loss functions with three learning-rate (LR) schedules: constant (C), intra-task decaying (ID), and continuously decaying (CD). Here, TT is the number of tasks and i∈[T−1]i \in[T-1] is the index of a previous task. NN and nn denote the number of iterations and training samples per task, respectively. LL and β\beta are the Lipschitz and smoothness constants. We define p=cβcβ+1p=\frac{c\beta}{c\beta+1}, where cc is the constant factor in the learning rate. The term GT,iG_{T,i} is cumulative gradient alignment defined in Equation (6). For the non-convex ID setting, the IGG and CGG upper bounds reported in the table apply when 2cL2<N2cL^{2}<N and 2cL2(eN)cβ(T−i)<N2cL^{2}(eN)^{c\beta(T-i)}<N, respectively. When a condition is not satisfied, the corresponding upper bound is N/nN/n. The full assumptions and detailed piecewise results are provided in § 4.

learning rates and O(log⁡(eN)/n)O(\log(eN)/n) under intra-task decay, while continuous decay gives bounds independent of NN for historical tasks i>1i>1, with the other parameters fixed. For non-convex losses and i>1i>1, the IGG and CGG bounds under continuous decay are no larger than those under intra-task decay at the same parameter values. In particular, for fixed cc, β\beta, LL, TT, ii with i>1i>1, the CGG bound under continuous decay is O(1/n)O(1/n) uniformly in NN. Thus, increasing the local training length does not impose an additional growth restriction for this bound to vanish as nn increases. These results show how carrying learning-rate decay across task boundaries changes the dependence of the generalization bounds on local training length. The EF bound further captures the joint contribution of cumulative gradient alignment and a second-order term controlled by squared learning rates. With the other parameters fixed, this second-order term scales as O(N)O(N), O(1)O(1), and O(1/N)O(1/N) under constant, intra-task decaying, and continuously decaying learning rates, respectively. Combining the generalization and EF bounds characterizes how perturbation propagation and trajectory-dependent gradient interactions jointly enter the population forgetting bound. Finally, we conduct experiments on Split CIFAR-100 and Split MiniImageNet to examine the empirical implications of our theoretical findings.

Our main contributions can be summarized as follows:

  • We derive explicit IGG and CGG bounds for continual SGD by tracking sample perturbations within a task and through subsequent tasks. These bounds characterize the effects of sample size, local training length, the total number of tasks, and learning-rate schedules.

  • We derive an EF bound in terms of cumulative gradient alignment and an explicit second-order term involving squared learning rates. The bound reveals how positive cumulative gradient alignment contributes to controlling empirical forgetting.

  • We derive upper bounds on expected forgetting through combining the IGG, CGG, and EF bounds, linking generalization with changes in empirical risk along the continual learning trajectory.

Empirical studies in CL. Continual learning has made substantial progress in empirical methods for mitigating catastrophic forgetting. We divide these methods into three main families: (1) replay-based methods, which either store data from previous tasks and replay it during training on the current task [13, 14, 15], or store gradient or feature information from prior tasks and constrain the current-task gradient to be orthogonal to the stored information [16, 17, 18, 19, 20]; (2) regularization-based methods, which aim to restrain updates of parameters that are important for previous tasks [21, 22], or maintain consistency of intermediate features by adding a regularization term to the loss [23]; and (3) architecture-based methods, which dynamically expand or adapt the model architecture to preserve knowledge from previous tasks [24, 25, 26].

Theoretical analysis of CL. Recent theoretical studies on CL have mainly focused on catastrophic forgetting and generalization. Broadly speaking, the existing literature can be divided into two main lines of work: linear model analysis and NTK-based analysis. Under the linear regime, Evron et al. [4], Lin et al. [5] investigate forgetting and generalization under the assumptions of overparameterized linear models. Ding et al. [6] study forgetting in both overparameterized and underparameterized regimes while relaxing the data assumptions to fourth-moment conditions. Moreover, several works use linear models to analyze concrete methods for mitigating forgetting, including replay-based methods [8, 27, 28], regularization-based methods [7, 29, 30, 31], and mixture-of-experts methods [32]. The other main line of theoretical work relies on the NTK regime. Specifically, Bennani et al. [33] establish generalization error bounds for CL based on the NTK and Rademacher complexity. Doan et al. [9] analyze forgetting by introducing the NTK overlap matrix as a task similarity metric. Karakida and Akaho [10] study forgetting and generalization error through learning-curve analysis between two tasks. Zheng et al. [11] further characterize the training-time dynamics of forgetting and generalization in the general CL setting. Taheri et al. [12] analyze forgetting in two-layer quadratic neural networks in the kernel regime, deriving explicit empirical forgetting bounds for orthogonal XOR-cluster tasks and using algorithmic stability to control delayed generalization. Liu et al. [34] derive generalization bounds for parameter-efficient fine-tuning in CL. However, these theoretical analyses have several limitations: (1) they rely on restrictive model assumptions, such as linear models, infinite-width models, or infinitesimal learning rates, which make the results less general; and (2) the upper bounds derived in the NTK setting often involve complicated kernel matrices, making them difficult to interpret and generalize. In contrast, we analyze forgetting through a fine-grained characterization of the training trajectory without restrictive model assumptions. Moreover, our bounds depend only on a few readily interpretable quantities, such as the training set size, local training length, learning-rate schedule, and gradient inner products between tasks.

The work most closely related to ours is that of Taheri et al. [12], who analyze forgetting using algorithmic stability. Our analysis differs in three aspects: (1) Their theoretical results are developed for two-layer neural networks with quadratic activations and fixed output-layer weights, whereas our analysis does not prescribe a particular network architecture. (2) Their explicit empirical forgetting guarantees rely on orthogonal XOR-cluster tasks and the specified network model. Our EF bound requires only that each sample loss be Lipschitz continuous and smooth with respect to the model parameters, without imposing these structural assumptions. Their delayed generalization analysis also uses Lipschitz and smoothness assumptions on the loss. (3) Their main forgetting and generalization theorems adopt constant learning rates, whereas we examine constant, intra-task decaying, and continuously decaying learning rates.

Preliminary

Continual Learning Setting

We consider the standard CL setting with T≥2T \ge2 sequential training tasks. For any positive integer nn, let [n]:={1,…,n}[n] := \{1,\ldots,n\}. For each task τ∈[T]\tau\in[T], let Dτ\mathcal{D}_{\tau} denote the data distribution. To simplify the analysis, we assume that each task dataset contains nn samples, and write Sτ=(zτ,1,…,zτ,n)S_{\tau} = (z_{\tau,1},\ldots,z_{\tau,n}) for the corresponding training data i.i.d. from Dτ\mathcal{D}_{\tau}. The datasets are independent across tasks. We denote the task sequence by S1:T:={S1,…,ST}S_{1:T} := \{S_1,\ldots,S_T\}, which collects the datasets from tasks 1 to TT. Let ff denote a differentiable loss function on the parameter space Ω=Rd\Omega= \mathbb{R}^{d}. We adopt stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as our update rule, which can be formulated as

wτ,t+1=wτ,t−ητ,t∇wf(wτ,t;zτ,it),w_{\tau,t+1} = w_{\tau,t} - \eta_{\tau,t} \nabla_w f(w_{\tau,t}; z_{\tau,i_t}),

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