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Competition, Switching, and Control in Coupled Adoption-Opinion Dynamics

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Abstract

We propose a Multi-technology AdopTion-opinion co-Evolution (MATE) model to describe the diffusion of m≥2m \geq 2 competing alternatives within a networked population whose opinions evolve under social influence and the feedback generated by adoption. Communities interact through two layers: a physical network governing exposure to adoption, and a social network shaping opinion evolution through social imitation. Individuals can adopt a technology, eventually becoming dissatisfied at a rate reflecting the quality of the technology, and switch to an alternative at a rate driven by their opinion of that alternative. For an arbitrary number of competing technologies m≥2m \geq 2, we characterize the equilibria and establish the existence of an adoption-diffused equilibrium in which all technologies coexist. For m>2m > 2, the equilibrium configuration depends on the broader competitive environment: unlike the two-technology case, within-community relative adoption generally depends also on equilibrium opinions and on the other alternatives. Finally, we formulate finite-horizon opinion-shaping control problems, derive necessary optimality conditions via the discrete-time Pontryagin maximum principle, and compute numerical extremals using a forward-backward sweep method.

Introduction

Research on diffusion processes over networks has attracted considerable attention due to its applications ranging from epidemic spreading to the adoption of behaviors, technologies, and social norms [11, 12, 39, 44]. Adoption is often driven not only by intrinsic value of

This work was supported in part by Digital Futures, Stockholm, Sweden, the Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP) funded by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, and by the European Union – Next Generation EU, Mission 4, Component 1, under the PRIN project TECHIE: A control and network-based approach for fostering the adoption of new technologies in the ecological transition, Cod. 2022KPHA24, CUP Master: D53D23001320006, CUP: B53D230027600006.

Email addresses: [email protected] (Martina Alutto), [email protected] (Fabrizio Dabbene), [email protected] (Angela Fontan), [email protected] (Karl H. Johansson), [email protected] (Chiara Ravazzi).

the product or behavior but also by social influence, making diffusion inherently a network-driven process emerging from local interactions. Empirical studies of product and service diffusion have further shown that adoption decisions depend on the local network structure and on the characteristics and position of previous adopters [25]. Several modeling frameworks have been proposed to model network diffusion, including the Bass model and threshold-based approaches [7, 23, 28], as well as epidemic-inspired models that describe adoption as a contagion process [30, 38]. In this context, SIR and SIS models, together with their extensions, have been widely used to represent spreading phenomena in social and technological systems, including reversible adoption, memory, and loss of interest [9, 13, 20] (Li et al. 2014). However, adoption is rarely determined by exposure alone. Individual willingness to adopt may also depend on beliefs, attitudes, and perceived social norms, which naturally motivates the integration of opinion dynamics into diffusion models. Classical models such as French–DeGroot (DeGroot [16]) and Friedkin–Johnsen (Friedkin & Johnsen [19]) describe how opinions evolve through social interactions and persistent individual predispositions. Building on these ideas, a growing body of work has coupled opinion evolution with an adoption dynamics resembling an epidemic one, recognizing a mutual interaction: opinions shape the willingness to adopt, while adoption itself may feed back into beliefs and attitudes ([5, 10, 15, 22, 33, 41, 42, 45, 47] (Xu & Ishii 2024)). A related direction is considered in ([40]), where adoption is coupled with an opinion dynamics process evolving over a signed network, thus accounting for antagonistic interactions among agents. These models show that the joint evolution of opinions and adoption can generate behaviors that contagion-based models alone cannot capture, but they typically focus on a single alternative or on restricted forms of competition. When multiple alternatives compete for adoption, individual decisions depend not only on exposure and social influence, but also on the set of available alternatives and on the possibility of switching among them. Competition among technologies and products has long been studied in economics, where network externalities may generate strategic advantages, path dependence, and lock-in, while the introduction of new alternatives can reshape the competitive environment ([6, 14, 26, 27]). Complementary game-theoretic approaches, particularly network coordination games, describe technology adoption as a strategic process in which agents benefit from coordinating their choices with those of their neighbors ([17, 18, 37]). Competition may lead to dominance of a single technology, but long-term coexistence can also emerge in the presence of heterogeneity, switching mechanisms, or competing contagions ([34, 36]). Related coexistence and competitive effects have also been observed in epidemic-inspired models of multi-virus, multi-contagion, and information spreading ([21, 43]). The relevance of accounting for more than two alternatives is also suggested by the evolution of real markets. Figure 1 shows that, during the expansion of iOS between 2007 and 2008, the relative ordering of Windows Mobile and BlackBerry reversed ([29]). These aggregate data do not establish a causal effect of entry, but illustrate how competitive dynamics may evolve as the set of available alternatives changes. Intervention in spreading and adoption dynamics has also been widely studied. Empirical and model-based approaches have investigated how information provision, network targeting, and mechanisms affecting peer influence can alter diffusion, while the control literature has considered influence maximization, predictive control of technology

Figure 1. Global market shares of selected smartphone platforms, 2006–2009. Data from Kennedy & Pon (2011).

adoption, opinion shaping, and control of competing contagions ([3, 4, 10, 28, 34] (Alutto, Bellotti, Dabbene & Ravazzi 2026; Ruf et al. 2019)). Despite these developments, existing approaches typically capture only subsets of the mechanisms that govern competition among alternatives. In particular, competitive diffusion models generally do not account simultaneously for alternative-specific opinions, dissatisfaction with the currently adopted option, and switching, while coupled adoption-opinion control frameworks have mainly focused on a single alternative. A unified framework combining competition, endogenous opinion formation, dissatisfaction, switching, and dynamic intervention is still lacking. This leaves open the problem of understanding and controlling diffusion when several alternatives coexist and adoption decisions and opinions co-evolve over heterogeneous interaction networks. To address this gap, we introduce the Multi-technology Adoption-opinion co-Evolution (MATE) model, a discrete-time network framework for the simultaneous diffusion of m≥2m \ge2 competing technologies over two heterogeneous interaction layers. The model tracks susceptible, adopter, and dissatisfied individuals together with technology-specific opinions, allowing adoption, dissatisfaction, switching, and social influence to co-evolve within a unified framework. Although we formulate the model in terms of competing technologies, the same structure applies more generally to products, services, platforms, or other competing alternatives. The present work extends the preliminary two-alternative formulation in ([2]) to an arbitrary number of competing alternatives. For m>2m>2, equilibrium outcomes depend on the full set of available alternatives, leading to a qualitatively richer competitive structure than in the two-alternative case. The contributions of this paper are threefold. First, we generalize the MATE framework to m≥2m \ge2 competing alternatives (Section 2) and establish the well-posedness of its dynamics. Second, we characterize the adoption-diffused equilibria (Section 3), establishing existence under strictly positive dissatisfaction rates, and providing sufficient conditions for uniqueness and global convergence from non-adoption-free initial states. We further identify features specific to the multi-alternative setting: the cancellation underlying the two-alternative adoption ratio is lost, pairwise adoption depends on the broader competitive environment, and uniqueness of the adoption-diffused equilibrium is no longer guaranteed under the standing assumptions. Numerical examples additionally illustrate the coexistence of multiple equilibria and entry-induced reversals between incumbent alternatives. Third, we formulate two finite-horizon optimal opinion-shaping control problems, derive necessary conditions via the discrete-time Pontryagin maximum principle and compute numerical extremals using a forward-backward sweep algorithm (§ 4).

Notation

We denote by R\mathbb{R} and R+\mathbb{R}_{+} the sets of real and nonnegative real numbers, respectively, and by R+n×n\mathbb{R}_{+}^{n\times n} the set of n×nn\times n real matrices with nonnegative entries. The all-ones and all-zeros vectors are denoted by 1\mathbf{1} and 0\mathbf{0}, respectively, and the identity matrix by II. The transpose of a matrix AA is denoted by ATA^{\mathsf{T}}. For x∈Rnx\in\mathbb{R}^{n}, we define ∥x∥1=∑i∣xi∣\lVert x\rVert_{1}=\sum_i|x_i| and ∥x∥∞=max⁡i∣xi∣\lVert x\rVert_{\infty}=\max_i|x_i| as its ℓ1\ell_1 and ℓ∞\ell_\infty norms, and we write diag⁡(x)\operatorname{diag}(x) for the diagonal matrix with diagonal entries given by xx. For an irreducible matrix A∈R+n×nA\in\mathbb{R}_{+}^{n\times n} (whose associated directed graph is strongly connected), we denote by ρ(A)\rho(A) the spectral radius of AA. Vector inequalities x≤yx\le y for x,y∈Rnx,y\in\mathbb{R}^{n} are understood component-wise.

Model Description

We consider a population divided into nn communities, where each community represents a subpopulation of indistinguishable individuals that can interact and adopt one among m≥2m\ge2 competing technologies or products. Let K:={1,…,m}\mathcal{K}:=\{1,\ldots,m\} denote the alternative set. Within each community ii belonging to V:={1,…,n}\mathcal{V}:=\{1,\ldots,n\}, individuals are classified into the following compartments at each time instant t≥0t\ge0:

  • si(t)s_i(t): fraction of susceptibles to all alternatives, who have not adopted any technology,

  • ai[k](t)a_i^{[k]}(t): fraction of adopters of technology k∈Kk\in\mathcal{K},

  • di[k](t)d_i^{[k]}(t): fraction of dissatisfied of technology k∈Kk\in\mathcal{K}.

The compartmental structure describing the adoption process is illustrated in Figure 2, where arrows indicate the possible transitions between the susceptible (SS), adopter (A[k]A^{[k]}), and dissatisfied (D[k]D^{[k]}) states. Susceptible people may adopt technology kk, upon exposure to adopters, while adopters may become dissatisfied due to a negative experience at a technology-dependent rate. Dissatisfied individuals can switch to an alternative depending on their opinions. The interactions among communities are captured by a weighted directed network G=(V,E,W)\mathcal{G}=(\mathcal{V},\mathcal{E},W), where E⊆V×V\mathcal{E}\subseteq\mathcal{V}\times\mathcal{V} and W∈R+n×nW\in\mathbb{R}_{+}^{n\times n} is a nonnegative physical interaction matrix. Each entry WijW_{ij} quantifies the strength of influence that community jj exerts on community ii in terms of adoption exposure.

Figure 2. Schematic transition diagram of the multi-technology adoption-opinion model. Susceptible individuals may adopt technology kk and enter A[k]A^{[k]}, adopters may become dissatisfied and move to D[k]D^{[k]} at rate δ[k]\delta^{[k]}, and dissatisfied individuals may switch to competing alternatives.

As mentioned above, in addition to physical interactions, adoption is driven by individual beliefs. To capture this effect, each community ii is associated with an opinion variable xi[k]∈[0,1]x_i^{[k]}\in[0,1] reflecting the average interest toward adopting technology kk. We further denote by pi[k]∈[0,1]p_i^{[k]}\in[0,1] the fixed predisposition of community ii toward alternative kk. Opinions evolve over a social network G~=(V,E~,W~)\widetilde{\mathcal{G}}=(\mathcal{V},\widetilde{\mathcal{E}},\widetilde{W}), where E~⊆V×V\widetilde{\mathcal{E}}\subseteq\mathcal{V}\times\mathcal{V} is the set of directed links, and W~∈R+n×n\widetilde{W}\in\mathbb{R}_{+}^{n\times n} is a nonnegative social interaction matrix. Each entry W~ij\widetilde{W}_{ij} quantifies the strength of influence that community jj exerts on community ii in shaping its opinion toward the available alternatives. Favorable opinions increase the effective adoption rate and the propensity to switch to the corresponding alternative. These effective rates are modeled as βi[k]xi[k]\beta_i^{[k]}x_i^{[k]} and γi[k]xi[k]\gamma_i^{[k]}x_i^{[k]}, respectively, with βi[k],γi[k]∈(0,1)\beta_i^{[k]},\gamma_i^{[k]}\in(0,1). Dissatisfaction instead occurs at a technology-dependent rate δi[k]∈[0,1]\delta_i^{[k]}\in[0,1], independently of opinions, reflecting intrinsic quality or user-experience factors. For each i∈Vi\in\mathcal{V}, k∈Kk\in\mathcal{K}, the dynamics is given by

si(t+1)=si(t)−si(t)∑k∈Kβi[k]xi[k](t)∑j∈VWijaj[k](t),(1)s_i(t+1)=s_i(t)-s_i(t)\sum_{k\in\mathcal{K}}\beta_i^{[k]}x_i^{[k]}(t)\sum_{j\in\mathcal{V}}W_{ij}a_j^{[k]}(t), \tag*{(1)}
ai[k](t+1)=ai[k](t)+βi[k]xi[k](t)si(t)∑j∈VWijaj[k](t)−δi[k]ai[k](t)+γi[k]xi[k](t)∑ℓ∈K∖{k}di[ℓ](t),(2)\begin{aligned} a_i^{[k]}(t+1)&=a_i^{[k]}(t)+\beta_i^{[k]}x_i^{[k]}(t)s_i(t)\sum_{j\in\mathcal{V}}W_{ij}a_j^{[k]}(t)\\ &\quad-\delta_i^{[k]}a_i^{[k]}(t)+\gamma_i^{[k]}x_i^{[k]}(t)\sum_{\ell\in\mathcal{K}\setminus\{k\}}d_i^{[\ell]}(t), \tag*{(2)} \end{aligned}
di[k](t+1)=di[k](t)−di[k](t)∑ℓ∈K∖{k}γi[ℓ]xi[ℓ](t)+δi[k]ai[k](t),(3)d_i^{[k]}(t+1)=d_i^{[k]}(t)-d_i^{[k]}(t)\sum_{\ell\in\mathcal{K}\setminus\{k\}}\gamma_i^{[\ell]}x_i^{[\ell]}(t)+\delta_i^{[k]}a_i^{[k]}(t), \tag*{(3)}
xi[k](t+1)=(1−λi[k]−ξi[k])pi[k]+λi[k]∑j∈VW~ijxj[k](t)+ξi[k]∑j∈VWijaj[k](t),(4)\begin{aligned} x_i^{[k]}(t+1)&=(1-\lambda_i^{[k]}-\xi_i^{[k]})p_i^{[k]}\\ &\quad+\lambda_i^{[k]}\sum_{j\in\mathcal{V}}\widetilde{W}_{ij}x_j^{[k]}(t)+\xi_i^{[k]}\sum_{j\in\mathcal{V}}W_{ij}a_j^{[k]}(t), \tag*{(4)} \end{aligned}

where λi[k],ξi[k]≥0\lambda_i^{[k]},\xi_i^{[k]}\ge0 satisfy λi[k]+ξi[k]<1\lambda_i^{[k]}+\xi_i^{[k]}<1 for all k∈Kk\in\mathcal{K}. The proposed opinion dynamics (1d) extends the classical Friedkin–Johnsen model Friedkin & Johnsen [19] by incorporating a feedback term from the adoption layer. Specifically, opinions towards a technology are shaped by three factors: the fixed predisposition of each community, social interactions over the opinion network, and the observed adoption levels in the physical layer. Hence, λi[k]\lambda_i^{[k]} quantifies the susceptibility to social influence and ξi[k]\xi_i^{[k]} captures the strength of adoption-driven feedback for technology kk for community ii. Note that the variables xi[k]x_i^{[k]} represent alternative-specific levels of interest rather than mutually exclusive choice probabilities.

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