Execution bias, repeatability and mitigation cost in parameter-frozen molecular VQE energy evaluation

Abstract

A smaller statistical error bar need not mean a more accurate molecular energy. We evaluate noiselessly optimized molecular variational quantum eigensolver states on IBM Aachen and Pittsburgh, two 156-qubit Heron processors (provider-reported revision 3). Only energy evaluation runs on hardware, with parameters, layouts and compiled circuits frozen and dynamical decoupling disabled. A five-molecule pilot, three-molecule isolated cohort in three windows and known-state controls comprise 110 jobs and 28.2 billed quantum processing unit (QPU) minutes; the isolated cohort spans 30.2 h within a 31.7 h campaign. Raw 1024 O2 and BeH2 mean residuals exceed returned uncertainty by factors 12-32. Pittsburgh BeH2 cross-job standard deviation is 5.6 times mean returned uncertainty. The zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE) package reduces O2 absolute residuals by 49.7% on Aachen and 83.5% on Pittsburgh at about fourfold charge. On Pittsburgh, twirled readout error extinction (TREX) removes 80 millihartree (mHa) per Raw 1024 job charge versus 50 mHa for ZNE. Controls reveal qubit-124 preparation or readout errors 5.4-5.6 times calibration; 13 mitigated energy point estimates fall outside the mapped spectrum, with no Raw counterpart. These results support workload checks and repeated measurements before additional sampling.