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Ontic state recovery through prediction

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Abstract

We encounter a system through its responses, yet its state concerns how the system is. Predicting further responses promises knowledge beyond what is immediately observed. What that knowledge tells us about the system's state depends on what we mean by a state in the first place. We give this notion a model-relative meaning: a state is the complete response profile over a specified query universe, and configurations agreeing on every query are regarded as the same state. From this perspective, a learned state is understood through the distinctions between these profiles that it retains. Prediction concerns selected observations; recovery concerns the profile as a whole. We examine their relationship through query ambiguity, state-space geometry, and the choice of prediction targets. Synthetic systems with known response laws and neural recordings provide complementary settings for this investigation. The aim is to clarify how prediction can become a way of knowing a system, and what it would mean for a learned state to preserve the state being studied.

Introduction

Learning a system’s state requires deciding which differences between its possible conditions matter. Knowing that state would let us reason beyond the aspects we happen to observe. For an animal, a neural recording offers one such view: a pattern of activity from which we seek to understand the condition that gives rise to it [7, 5]. Giving this underlying condition a precise meaning is part of the problem of knowing it.

From observation to prediction

Figure 1. From observation to prediction. The encoder maps input observations to a learned state; the predictor estimates observations at the target queries.

Predicting further observations offers a way to study this problem. Neural population models learn to predict held-out activity (Pei et al., 2021), and models trained across recordings use related objectives to support downstream decoding (Ye et al., 2023). A learned state is useful here because it carries information about observations beyond its input.

“When does learning to predict a system amount to learning its state?”

We make this question precise relative to a query universe. A query specifies what is measured, and an observation is the resulting value. Within that universe, the ontic state is the complete response profile: configurations agreeing on every query count as the same state. In a neural recording, a query specifies a unit and a trailing-window duration. An encoder maps input observations to a learned state, from which a predictor estimates observations at target queries (see Figure 1). Theoretical work relates auxiliary prediction and context learning to downstream performance (Lee et al., 2021; Zhai et al., 2025). We ask how much of the ontic state can be recovered from the learned state that supports these predictions.

Consider targets that all depend on one coordinate of a state. Exact prediction constrains that coordinate while leaving the others free. Query ambiguity measures the unresolved state differences. It connects the distinctions tested by prediction to the profile we seek to recover.

This connection motivates three contributions:

  1. Ontic-state formulation. We formulate ontic states as complete response profiles over a query universe.

  2. Recovery guarantees. We establish prediction–recovery guarantees in both general settings and the low-dimensional settings commonly studied in neuroscience.

  3. Fixed-family sharpness. We prove matching budget bounds on a fixed state family, distinguishing targets shared across encoders from targets tailored to each encoder.

Ontic State

State, Query, and Observation

What does it mean for a system to be in a particular state, independently of how we describe it? We need a criterion of identity. Leibniz’s account of individual substance locates identity in a complete concept determining the predicates of its subject (Leibniz, 1686). For a scientific account of state, which properties should determine this identity?

We give these properties empirical meaning through the observations the system could produce [19] (Peirce 1878).

Each query specifies one such observation. Two configurations may agree in position and differ in velocity: whether we distinguish them depends on the queries admitted. We therefore fix a query universe before defining its states.

If no question in this universe can distinguish two putative states, we regard them as one ontic state: a difference in description alone does not constitute a difference in state. Their common response profile fixes this identity independently of the coordinates used to represent it (Poincaré, 1905). An experiment reveals part of the profile, while the state specifies responses throughout the universe. We thus model a state as a function from queries to observations.

Definition 2.1 (Ontic State). An ontic state is an admissible bounded function

f:U→R,(1)f:\mathcal{U}\to\mathbb{R}, \tag*{(1)}

where U\mathcal{U} is a fixed nonempty set. The collection F\mathcal{F} of all admissible ontic states is called the ontic state space.

Definition 2.2 (Query Universe). The common domain U\mathcal{U} of the ontic states is called the query universe, and its elements are called queries. For f∈Ff \in\mathcal{F} and q∈Uq \in\mathcal{U}, the value f(q)f(q) is the observation returned by query qq in state ff.

An experiment records responses to a finite set of queries. We collect these readings into an observation vector.

Definition 2.3 (Observation). A query set is a nonempty finite subset Q⊆UQ \subseteq\mathcal{U}. The observation vector of a state f∈Ff \in\mathcal{F} on QQ is

f(Q):=(f(q))q∈Q∈RQ.(2)f(Q) := \left(f(q)\right)_{q\in Q} \in\mathbb{R}^{Q}. \tag*{(2)}

Here RQ\mathbb{R}^{Q} denotes real-valued vectors indexed by QQ.

To compare two profiles, we ask how far their responses can differ over the queries being considered. Taking the largest difference gives a common distance for full states and finite observation vectors.

Definition 2.4 (Ontic Distance). For a nonempty index set II and bounded real-valued functions uu, vv whose domains contain II, define their distance on II by

dI(u,v)≔sup⁡i∈I∣u(i)−v(i)∣.(3)d_I(u,v) \coloneqq\sup_{i \in I} \lvert u(i)-v(i)\rvert. \tag*{(3)}

This is the supremum metric between their restrictions to II. Vectors are functions on their index set; for finite II, the supremum is a maximum.

The ontic distance is dU(f,g)d_{\mathcal{U}}(f,g); the observation distance on QQ is dQ(f(Q),g(Q))d_Q(f(Q),g(Q)). The latter is a metric on observation vectors and a pseudometric on states, since distinct states can yield identical observations on QQ.

Figure 2 shows how a state and query set determine an observation vector. The noisy extension treats the profile as a conditional mean response and measured activity as a noisy observation (section E).

State, query, and observation

Figure 2. State, query, and observation. The state f∈Ff \in\mathcal{F} and query set Q={q1,q2}⊆UQ = \{q_1,q_2\} \subseteq\mathcal{U} determine the observation vector f(Q)f(Q). Its entries are f(q1)f(q_1) and f(q2)f(q_2); unlabeled points denote queries outside QQ.

Query Ambiguity

A complete response profile defines a state, but how much of it do our observations determine? Hume’s question about inference beyond present observation brings this gap into focus [18 sec. IV]. Within a specified model class, optimal recovery makes the uncertainty quantitative [3] (Micchelli and Rivlin 1977). We ask how different two full states can be when their recorded observations agree within a given tolerance.

Definition 2.5 (Query Ambiguity). Fix a query set Q⊆UQ \subseteq\mathcal{U}. For a tolerance r≥0r \ge0, define the query ambiguity on QQ by

ωQ(r)≔sup⁡f,g∈FdQ(f(Q),g(Q))≤rdU(f,g).(4)\omega_Q(r) \coloneqq\sup_{\substack{f,g \in\mathcal{F}\\ d_Q(f(Q),g(Q)) \le r}} d_{\mathcal{U}}(f,g). \tag*{(4)}

At r=0r = 0, ambiguity measures the state differences compatible with identical observations on QQ. Positive tolerances allow for prediction error. An observation decoder recovers a state from the observation vector.

Definition 2.6 (Observation Decoder). Fix a query set Q⊆UQ \subseteq\mathcal{U}. Define the observation decoder class by

AQ≔{aQ:RQ→F}.(5)\mathcal{A}_Q \coloneqq\{a_Q : \mathbb{R}^{Q} \to\mathcal{F}\}. \tag*{(5)}

For an observation decoder aQ∈AQa_Q \in\mathcal{A}_Q, its recovery error is

EQ(aQ)≔sup⁡f∈FdU(aQ(f(Q)),f).(6)\mathcal{E}_Q(a_Q) \coloneqq\sup_{f \in\mathcal{F}} d_{\mathcal{U}}(a_Q(f(Q)),f). \tag*{(6)}

The optimal recovery error from observations on QQ is

EQ∗≔inf⁡aQ∈AQEQ(aQ).(7)\mathcal{E}_Q^* \coloneqq\inf_{a_Q \in\mathcal{A}_Q} \mathcal{E}_Q(a_Q). \tag*{(7)}

Additional queries can resolve distinctions left open by the current observations. We describe this accumulation of information by a nested query sequence.

Definition 2.7 (Query Sequence). A query sequence is a family (Qp)p≥1(Q_p)_{p \ge1} of query sets with Qp⊆Qp+1⊆UQ_p \subseteq Q_{p+1} \subseteq\mathcal{U} for all p≥1p \ge1. The stage-pp observation vector is f(Qp)f(Q_p).

Definition 2.8 (State Separation). A query sequence (Qp)p≥1(Q_p)_{p \ge1} is said to separate states in F\mathcal{F} if

∀f≠g∈F,∃p≥1:f(Qp)≠g(Qp).(8)\forall f \ne g \in\mathcal{F},\quad\exists p \ge1:\quad f(Q_p) \ne g(Q_p). \tag*{(8)}

Separating queries progressively resolve observation ambiguity (figure 8). Compactness makes this resolution stable under vanishing tolerances.

Lemma 2.9 (Vanishing Ambiguity). Let (F,dU)(\mathcal{F},d_{\mathcal{U}}) be nonempty and compact, and let (Pm)m≥1(P_m)_{m \ge1} be a query sequence separating states. For nonnegative tolerances rm→0r_m \to0,

ωPm(rm)→0.(9)\omega_{P_m}(r_m) \to0. \tag*{(9)}

Prediction and Recovery

What must a learned representation preserve for us to recover the state it describes? Hertz’s account of representation centers on the correspondence between consequences [17 Introduction]. Here we test that correspondence by predicting further responses from encoded observations. The preceding lemma explains why the targets matter: agreement on sufficiently rich readings constrains the difference between full states. Prediction can thereby test whether a representation retains the distinctions defining the state.

Definition 2.10 (Prediction and Recovery). The learning pipeline uses two disjoint query sets: QQ indexes the input observations f(Q)f(Q), and PP indexes the target observations f(P)f(P). An encoder e:RQ→Ze : \mathbb{R}^{Q} \to\mathcal{Z} maps f(Q)f(Q) to the learned state e(f(Q))e(f(Q)) in a nonempty space Z\mathcal{Z}. From this learned state, a predictor b:Z→RPb : \mathcal{Z} \to\mathbb{R}^{P} estimates f(P)f(P), while a state decoder a:Z→Fa : \mathcal{Z} \to\mathcal{F} reconstructs the ontic state ff. Their errors are

LQ,P(b;e)≔sup⁡f∈FdP((b∘e)(f(Q)),f(P)),RQ(a;e)≔sup⁡f∈FdU((a∘e)(f(Q)),f).(10)\begin{aligned} \mathcal{L}_{Q,P}(b;e) &\coloneqq\sup_{f \in\mathcal{F}} d_P\bigl((b \circ e)(f(Q)), f(P)\bigr),\\ \mathcal{R}_{Q}(a;e) &\coloneqq\sup_{f \in\mathcal{F}} d_{\mathcal{U}}\bigl((a \circ e)(f(Q)), f\bigr). \tag*{(10)} \end{aligned}

Let BP\mathcal{B}_P and A\mathcal{A} be the classes of all maps of these respective types. For a fixed encoder, define

LQ,P⋆(e)≔inf⁡b∈BPLQ,P(b;e),RQ⋆(e)≔inf⁡a∈ARQ(a;e).(11)\mathcal{L}^{\star}_{Q,P}(e) \coloneqq\inf_{b \in\mathcal{B}_P} \mathcal{L}_{Q,P}(b;e), \qquad\mathcal{R}^{\star}_{Q}(e) \coloneqq\inf_{a \in\mathcal{A}} \mathcal{R}_{Q}(a;e). \tag*{(11)}

Both optimizations hold the encoder fixed; RQ⋆(e)\mathcal{R}^{\star}_{Q}(e) measures the recovery accuracy available from its learned state.

Corollary 2.11 (Input Ambiguity). For a nonempty state family, query set QQ, and encoder ee,

RQ⋆(e)≥EQ⋆≥12ωQ(0).(12)\mathcal{R}^{\star}_{Q}(e) \ge\mathcal{E}^{\star}_{Q} \ge\frac{1}{2}\omega_{Q}(0). \tag*{(12)}

Input queries supply distinctions to the encoder; targets test their preservation in its learned state.

Low-Dimensional Geometry

From population activity to state geometry

Figure 3. From population activity to state geometry. The neural inset motivates a low-dimensional model for the ontic state space F\mathcal{F}.

A neural recording contains many coordinates, yet activity within a task can vary through a few latent variables [11, 20]. This organization can constrain which patterns are learned (Sadtler et al., 2014) and take forms such as the toroidal geometry of grid-cell activity [12]. The resulting state family may curve through a much larger linear space [9].

Recovering a state within such a family requires responses that distinguish its members. Classical population decoding illustrates how neural responses carry this information: movement direction can be read from motor-cortical ensembles [13], and position reconstructed from hippocampal place-cell activity (Zhang et al., 1998). Models of population codes explain how neuronal tuning and background activity affect readout accuracy (Seung and Sompolinsky, 1993).

These observations lead to two quantitative requirements (figure 3). The state family should admit a controlled number of representatives at each resolution, and queries outside the inputs should distinguish its members. Covering numbers express the first requirement; observability expresses the second.

Assumption 2.12 (Low-Dimensional Observability). For a query set QQ with U∖Q≠∅\mathcal{U} \setminus Q \ne\varnothing, there are constants C≥1C \ge1, d>0d > 0, and α∈(0,1]\alpha\in(0,1] such that

NF(ε)≤Cε−d,0<ε≤1,(13)\mathcal{N}_{\mathcal{F}}(\varepsilon) \le C\varepsilon^{-d}, \qquad0 < \varepsilon\le1, \tag*{(13)}

where NF(ε)\mathcal{N}_{\mathcal{F}}(\varepsilon) is the covering number: the fewest closed dUd_{\mathcal{U}}-balls of radius ε\varepsilon, centered in F\mathcal{F}, that cover F\mathcal{F}. The queries outside QQ distinguish states quantitatively:

sup⁡p∈U∖Q∣f(p)−g(p)∣≥αdU(f,g),f,g∈F.(14)\sup_{p\in\mathcal{U}\setminus Q} \lvert f(p)-g(p)\rvert\ge\alpha d_{\mathcal{U}}(f,g), \qquad f,g\in\mathcal{F}. \tag*{(14)}

Main Results

Prediction tests the distinctions retained by a learned state. If an encoder maps two states to the same learned state, every predictor must return the same target observations for both. Their target difference therefore imposes an unavoidable prediction error.

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