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Asymptotic distributions of the Betti and Hodge numbers of M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,n}

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Abstract

We study the asymptotic distributions of the Betti and Hodge numbers of the moduli spaces M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,n} of stable pointed curves and the all-light Hassett spaces M‾g,0∣n\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,0|n}, for fixed genus g≥1g\ge1 as the number of markings tends to infinity. We prove central limit theorems for the full Betti distributions, whose variances grow linearly in nn with leading coefficients independent of the genus. For the normalized even Betti numbers, we establish refined local limit theorems with estimates uniform in degree. These local estimates yield asymptotic formulas for individual even Betti numbers and determine the sharp central ultra-log-concavity thresholds 3(e−2)2(3−e)\frac{3(e-2)}{2(3-e)} and 33, respectively. For g≥2g\ge2, the off-diagonal Hodge components form proportions of exact orders n−1/2n^{-1/2} and n−1n^{-1} of the total cohomology of the two spaces, respectively. The conditional distributions of the Hodge difference p−qp-q given p≠qp\ne q converge, for both spaces, to a single discrete law independent of the genus. We also prove that tautological classes account for all but a proportion of exact order n−1n^{-1} of the even cohomology of M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,n}. The tautological degree distribution converges to the standard Gaussian under the centering and scaling of the ambient even Betti distribution. An explicit asymptotic formula for the ratio of the ordinary Euler characteristics of the light and heavy spaces answers a question of Kannan, Serpente and Yun. The proofs combine the heavy/light substitution with a stratification of the light spaces by stable cores, singularity analysis of Hodge generating functions, and refined Fourier estimates exploiting Poincaré duality.

Introduction

The moduli spaces M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,n} of stable nn-pointed curves of genus gg [8, 20] are central objects of algebraic geometry, and their cohomology is the natural setting for intersection theory on moduli spaces, Gromov–Witten theory and quantum cohomology [22]. Much is known about this cohomology in special ranges. In genus zero, Keel described the cohomology ring and gave recursions for the Betti numbers [18]. In genus one, the even cohomology is tautological by a theorem of Petersen [23], and the Hodge–Deligne polynomials can be computed explicitly [19]. In arbitrary genus, the cohomology in low degrees has been analyzed in recent work of Bergström, Faber and Payne [2] and of Canning, Larson and Payne [4]. We refer to [9] for a survey of tautological and non-tautological classes.

In this paper we take a complementary, global point of view: we fix the genus and let the number of markings grow. The total Betti number of M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,n} grows like n!(e−2)−nn!(e-2)^{-n} times a power of nn. Exact computation of individual Betti numbers is difficult, so instead seek asymptotic estimates and ask about the shape of the cohomology:

  1. how the Betti numbers are distributed over the degrees, and how large an individual Betti number is;

  1. what proportion of the cohomology is tautological, and what proportion lies off the Hodge diagonal;

  1. which log-concavity properties the Betti numbers satisfy near the middle degree.

Questions of this kind are classical for combinatorial sequences, where Gaussian limit laws are ubiquitous [10]. In earlier work we established Gaussian limit laws and central ultra-log-concavity for M‾0,n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{0,n} and P1[n]\mathbb{P}^{1}[n] [5], and for the Fulton–MacPherson compactifications of configuration spaces of smooth projective curves [6]. Here we treat all three questions in positive genus.

Throughout, g≥1g \ge1 is fixed, cohomology has rational coefficients, and implicit constants may depend on gg. Along with the space M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,n}, whose markings have weight one and are distinct, we study the all-light Hassett space

M‾g,0∣n=M‾g,(1/n,…,1/n)\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,0|n}=\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,(1/n,\ldots,1/n)}

of [13], whose markings have weight 1/n1/n and may therefore coincide at smooth points of the curve. We call M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,n} the heavy space and M‾g,0∣n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,0|n} the light space. Both are smooth and proper Deligne–Mumford stacks of dimension

dn=n+3g−3,d_n=n+3g-3,

so their Betti numbers are palindromic by Poincaré duality. We study the light spaces using their geometric stratification and apply the heavy/light substitution of Kannan, Serpente and Yun [16] to obtain results for M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,n}.

Gaussian behavior of the Betti numbers

Let Xg,nHX^H_{g,n} denote the random variable that takes the value kk with probability proportional to b2k(M‾g,n)b_{2k}(\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,n}), and define Xg,nLX^L_{g,n} in the same way using M‾g,0∣n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{g,0|n}. Thus Xg,nHX^H_{g,n} is half the degree of an even-degree class chosen uniformly at random from a homogeneous basis. By Poincaré duality, both variables have mean exactly dn/2d_n/2. Let

ν=3−e6(e−2)=0.0653685…,\nu=\frac{3-e}{6(e-2)}=0.0653685\ldots,

and let

Φ(x)=∫−∞x12πe−t2/2 dt\Phi(x)=\int_{-\infty}^{x}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-t^2/2}\,dt

denote the standard normal distribution function.

Theorem A (Central limit theorem). Fix g≥1g \ge1. As n→∞n \to\infty, the variances of Xg,nHX^H_{g,n} and Xg,nLX^L_{g,n} satisfy

Var⁡(Xg,nH)=νn+(g−1)(11−4e)12(e−2)+O(n−1/2),Var⁡(Xg,nL)=n−g+112+O(n−1),\operatorname{Var}(X^H_{g,n})=\nu n+\frac{(g-1)(11-4e)}{12(e-2)}+O(n^{-1/2}), \qquad\operatorname{Var}(X^L_{g,n})=\frac{n-g+1}{12}+O(n^{-1}),

and, for J∈{H,L}J \in\{H,L\},

sup⁡x∈R∣P(Xg,nJ−dn/2Var⁡(Xg,nJ)≤x)−Φ(x)∣=O(n−1/2).\sup_{x\in\mathbb{R}}\left|\mathbb{P}\left(\frac{X^J_{g,n}-d_n/2}{\sqrt{\operatorname{Var}(X^J_{g,n})}}\leq x\right)-\Phi(x)\right|=O(n^{-1/2}).

The same conclusions hold for the full Betti numbers bjb_j, indexed by the cohomological degree jj, with mean dnd_n and with both variance expansions multiplied by 4.

The leading variance coefficients are independent of the genus. The coefficient ν\nu also governs the even Betti distributions of M‾0,n\overline{\mathcal{M}}_{0,n} [5] and of the Fulton–MacPherson spaces [6], while 1/121/12 comes from the Eulerian numbers. After normalization, the Betti polynomials have the asymptotic quasi-powers form A(t)B(t)nA(t)B(t)^n, where A(t)A(t) is the genus-dependent amplitude and B(t)B(t) is the genus-independent base. The base determines the coefficient of nn in the variance, while the amplitude determines the constant term.

The Gaussian law of Theorem A concerns cumulative probabilities. We also prove a local limit theorem for the even Betti numbers (Theorem 5.3), giving a Gaussian approximation that is uniform over all degrees and includes higher-order corrections. Together with the asymptotics of the even Betti totals, these local estimates yield asymptotic formulas for individual even Betti numbers. They involve the weighted count

cg=∑Γ1∣Aut⁡Γ∣.c_g=\sum_{\Gamma}\frac{1}{|\operatorname{Aut}\Gamma|}.

of connected trivalent graphs Γ\Gamma of first Betti number gg, with loops and multiple edges allowed. These numbers are determined by

∑g≥2cgxg−1=log⁡∑m≥0(6m)!23m(3m)!(3!)2m(2m)!xm,\sum_{g\geq2} c_g x^{g-1}=\log\sum_{m\geq0}\frac{(6m)!}{2^{3m}(3m)!(3!)^{2m}(2m)!}x^m,

so that c2=5/24c_2=5/24 and c3=5/16c_3=5/16 (Proposition 3.11).

Theorem B (Individual Betti numbers). Fix g≥1g\geq1 and let xn,k=k−dn/2x_{n,k}=k-d_n/2. Uniformly over all integers kk,

b2k(M‾g,n)=Cg(1)2πν n!(e−2)−nn3g−62[exp⁡(−xn,k22νn)+O(n−1/2)],b_{2k}(\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,n})=\frac{C_g(1)}{\sqrt{2\pi\nu}}\,n!(e-2)^{-n}n^{\frac{3g-6}{2}}\left[\exp\left(-\frac{x_{n,k}^2}{2\nu n}\right)+O(n^{-1/2})\right],
b2k(M‾g,0∣n)=6π Ag(1) n!n6g−92[exp⁡(−6xn,k2n)+O(n−1)],b_{2k}(\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,0|n})=\sqrt{\frac{6}{\pi}}\,A_g(1)\,n!n^{\frac{6g-9}{2}}\left[\exp\left(-\frac{6x_{n,k}^2}{n}\right)+O(n^{-1})\right],

where A1(1)=1/2A_1(1)=1/2, C1(1)=1/4C_1(1)=1/4, and, for g≥2g\geq2,

Ag(1)=cge−2(g−1)Γ(3g−3),Cg(1)=cge−(g−1)/2Γ(3g−32)[2(e−2)]3g−32.A_g(1)=\frac{c_g e^{-2(g-1)}}{\Gamma(3g-3)},\qquad C_g(1)=\frac{c_g e^{-(g-1)/2}}{\Gamma\left(\frac{3g-3}{2}\right)[2(e-2)]^{\frac{3g-3}{2}}}.

The asymptotics of the even Betti totals are established in Theorem 4.1. The odd cohomology is negligible in comparison: it is a proportion O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2}) of the cohomology of M‾g,n\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,n} and O(n−1)O(n^{-1}) of that of M‾g,0∣n\overline{\mathcal M}_{g,0|n}, and Theorem E below identifies the exact orders. Consequently, the Euler characteristics are asymptotic to the even Betti totals, which answers a question of Kannan, Serpente and Yun [16 Question 5.3].

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