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Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Analysis Without Structural Equations: Debiased Inference on Functionals of Inverse Problems with No Solutions

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Abstract

We consider debiased inference on finite-dimensional functionals of infinite-dimensional least-squares solutions to inverse problems as a way to avoid having to assume exact solutions exist. Such assumptions are substantive and not innocuous, and their failure may imperil inference when we impose them on the statistical model. Our approach instead allows us to conduct inference on a quantity that is defined regardless of solutions existing and coincides with the usual estimands when they do. For the case of instrumental variables, this means we can motivate the analysis with structural models but these do not need to hold exactly for the semiparametric inferential procedure to remain valid.

Introduction

Instrumental variable (IV) analyses generally start by posing a structural equation:

Y=hstructural(X)+ϵ,(1)Y = h_{\mathrm{structural}}(X) + \epsilon, \tag*{(1)}

where hstructuralh_{\mathrm{structural}} represents the causal effect of XX on YY, and XX and ϵ\epsilon may be endogenous (E[ϵ∣X]≠0\mathbb{E}[\epsilon\mid X] \ne0). Then given an exogenous instrument ZZ satisfying the exclusion restriction, the common statistical solution given joint observations of W=(X,Y,Z)∼PW = (X, Y, Z) \sim P is to conduct inference on some continuous linear functional h↦EP[m(W;h)]h \mapsto\mathbb{E}_{P}[m(W; h)] of a solution h∈Hh \in\mathcal{H} to the linear equation implied by exclusion:

TPh=rP,(2)T_{P}h = r_{P}, \tag*{(2)}

where TP:H→GT_{P} : \mathcal{H} \to\mathcal{G} maps h↦arg min⁡g∈GEP(h(X)−g(Z))2h \mapsto\operatorname*{arg\,min}_{g \in\mathcal{G}} \mathbb{E}_{P}(h(X) - g(Z))^{2}, rP=arg min⁡r∈GEP(Y−r(Z))2r_{P} = \operatorname*{arg\,min}_{r \in\mathcal{G}} \mathbb{E}_{P}(Y - r(Z))^{2}, and H,G\mathcal{H}, \mathcal{G} are closed linear subspaces of square-integrable functions of XX and of ZZ, respectively. For example, if these are all square-integrable functions, then (TPh)(Z)=EP[h(X)∣Z](T_{P}h)(Z) = \mathbb{E}_{P}[h(X) \mid Z] is the conditional expectation.

There are two possible challenges with this:

  • The existence of solutions to Eq. (2). When we start with Eq. (1) with hstructural∈Hh_{\mathrm{structural}} \in\mathcal{H} we are guaranteed a solution to Eq. (2) in H\mathcal{H} by construction. For example, we may assume a linear structural equation [3, 7, 31, 34]. Nonparametric IV (NPIV) analysis aims to relax this by allowing hstructuralh_{\mathrm{structural}} to be any (square-integrable) function. However, this still assumes some solution exists, which is still a very substantive assumption. If we impose this assumption on the statistical model we consider, as done in [1, 2, 8, 9, 11, 12, 17, 27, 32] who achieve efficiency in this statistical model, then the estimator may well deteriorate very ungracefully when no perfect solution to Eq. (2) actually exists. This can be understood as exclusion and/or homogeneity (additive ϵ\epsilon) not always holding exactly, as may occur in practice. To illustrate the point: in an “overidentified" setting with many instruments, would we really believe all instruments perfectly identify the exact same causal effect [4, 5, 24]?

  • The uniqueness of EP[m(W;h)]\mathbb{E}_{P}[m(W;h)] over solutions. Even if we have solutions to Eq. (2), there may be many, and they may not all lead to the same value of EP[m(W;h)]\mathbb{E}_{P}[m(W;h)]. This can be understood as instrument weakness: the variations ZZ induces in XX can be insufficient to characterize the aspects of hstructuralh_{\mathrm{structural}} we care about. That TPh=TPh′T_{P}h = T_{P}h' implies EP[m(W;h)]=EP[m(W;h′)]\mathbb{E}_{P}[m(W;h)] = \mathbb{E}_{P}[m(W;h')] for all h,h′∈Hh,h' \in\mathcal{H} would be implied by the existence of a solution in G\mathcal{G} to TP∗g=aPT_{P}^{*}g = a_{P}, where aP∈Ha_{P} \in\mathcal{H} is the Riesz representer of h↦EP[m(W;h)]h \mapsto\mathbb{E}_{P}[m(W;h)] (since this implies aP∈range⁡(TP∗)⊆kernel⁡(TP)⊥a_{P} \in\operatorname{range}(T_{P}^{*}) \subseteq\operatorname{kernel}(T_{P})^{\perp}). These identification assumptions have been explored in [8, 9, 19, 26, 32, ?]. However, the same conundrum arises: a solution to that linear equation may well only approximately exist in practice.

In both cases, it would behoove us to not impose the assumptions of the existence of solutions (to TPh=rPT_{P}h = r_{P}, to TP∗g=aPT_{P}^{*}g = a_{P}, or to both) on any statistical model. While the equations may be well motivated, perfect solutions may not really exist in practice and this can derail inference procedures that assume they do. Instead, we would rather target a statistical quantity that is well-defined regardless of existence of such solutions, coincides with the structural quantities when they do make sense, and degrades reasonably in mild violations of existence of solutions.

Toward that end, in this paper we consider debiased inference on the following estimand:

Ψ(P):=EP[g(Z)h(X)],h∈HP,g∈GP,\Psi(P) := \mathbb{E}_{P}[g(Z)h(X)], \qquad h \in\mathcal{H}_{P}, \quad g \in\mathcal{G}_{P},

where HP:=arg⁡min⁡h∈H∥TPh−rP∥L2(PZ)2\mathcal{H}_{P} := \arg\min_{h \in\mathcal{H}} \lVert T_{P}h - r_{P} \rVert_{L^{2}(P_{Z})}^{2} and GP:=arg⁡min⁡g∈G∥TP∗g−aP∥L2(PX)2\mathcal{G}_{P} := \arg\min_{g \in\mathcal{G}} \lVert T_{P}^{*}g - a_{P} \rVert_{L^{2}(P_{X})}^{2}, which, under a mild assumption given in the next section (Assumption 1), is well defined without requiring the existence of solutions to either equation TPh=rPT_{P}h = r_{P} or TP∗g=aPT_{P}^{*}g = a_{P}, and regardless of which minimizer we choose in the above population least-squares problems. Of course, when solutions to TPh=rPT_{P}h = r_{P} and TP∗g=aPT_{P}^{*}g = a_{P} exist, we always recover the original causal structural estimand.

To allow sufficient generality so as to also cover such related problems as proximal causal inference [17, 19, 27, 29], we generalize rPr_{P} to be the (unknown) Riesz representer of some continuous linear functional

G→R:g↦EP[m~(W;g)],(3)\mathcal{G} \to\mathbb{R}: g \mapsto\mathbb{E}_{P}[\widetilde{m}(W;g)], \tag*{(3)}

where m~\widetilde{m} is a known function. For example, for the IV setting, we set m~(W;g)=Yg(Z)\widetilde{m}(W;g) = Yg(Z). Similarly, we also let aPa_{P} be unknown, and only require that it is the (unknown) Riesz representer of some continuous linear functional H→R:h↦EP[m(W;h)]\mathcal{H} \to\mathbb{R}: h \mapsto\mathbb{E}_{P}[m(W;h)], where mm is a known function. We refer the reader to Examples 2 and 3 in [9] for instantiation in proximal causal inference and missing-not-at-random data.

Setup and Identification

Notation. Throughout this paper we consider three random variables X,Y,ZX,Y,Z which take values respectively in the separable measurable spaces EX,EY,EZE_X,E_Y,E_Z endowed with their respective Borel σ\sigma-fields FEX,FEY,FEZ\mathcal{F}_{E_X},\mathcal{F}_{E_Y},\mathcal{F}_{E_Z}. We write WW for the random vector (X,Y,Z)(X,Y,Z), and we let EW=EX×EY×EZE_W = E_X \times E_Y \times E_Z. We let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P) denote the underlying probability space with expectation operator EP\mathbb{E}_P, abbreviated as E\mathbb{E}. Let PX,PY,PZP_X,P_Y,P_Z denote the pushforward of PP under X,Y,ZX,Y,Z respectively, i.e. X∼PX,Y∼PY,Z∼PZX \sim P_X,Y \sim P_Y,Z \sim P_Z. We denote the space of real-valued Lebesgue square integrable functions on (EX,FEX)(E_X,\mathcal{F}_{E_X}) with respect to PXP_X as L2(EX,FEX,PX)L^2(E_X,\mathcal{F}_{E_X},P_X), abbreviated as L2(PX)L^2(P_X). We define L2(PY)L^2(P_Y) and L2(PZ)L^2(P_Z) similarly. We let H,G\mathcal{H},\mathcal{G} denote closed linear subspaces of L2(PX)L^2(P_X) and L2(PZ)L^2(P_Z) respectively. We write ∥⋅∥H=∥⋅∥L2(PX)\lVert\cdot\rVert_{\mathcal{H}} = \lVert\cdot\rVert_{L^2(P_X)} and ∥⋅∥G=∥⋅∥L2(PZ)\lVert\cdot\rVert_{\mathcal{G}} = \lVert\cdot\rVert_{L^2(P_Z)}. Let H1\mathcal{H}_1 and H2\mathcal{H}_2 be Hilbert spaces. We write L(H1,H2)\mathcal{L}(\mathcal{H}_1,\mathcal{H}_2) as the Banach space of bounded linear operators from H1\mathcal{H}_1 to H2\mathcal{H}_2, equipped with the operator norm ∥⋅∥op\lVert\cdot\rVert_{\mathrm{op}}. For an operator A∈L(H1,H2)A \in\mathcal{L}(\mathcal{H}_1,\mathcal{H}_2), we let A∗∈L(H2,H1)A^* \in\mathcal{L}(\mathcal{H}_2,\mathcal{H}_1) denote its adjoint. For a subset A⊆H1A \subseteq\mathcal{H}_1, we let A‾\overline{A} denote its closure in H1\mathcal{H}_1, and we let A⊥⊆H1A^\perp\subseteq\mathcal{H}_1 denote its orthogonal complement in H1\mathcal{H}_1.

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