alphaFeedback

WorksMathematics

Variance of the Random k-SAT Hitting Time

AI contributions
  • unreleased internal OpenAI model
View details
Ancillary data
Formal proof, 4 proof or workflow links
View

Abstract

Let Hn be the index of the first unsatisfiable prefix in random k-SAT on n variables, with independent uniformly signed clauses using k distinct variables and sampled with replacement. For every fixed k ≥ 4, we prove Var(Hn)=Θk(n)\mathop{\mathrm{Var}}\nolimits (H_n)=\Theta_k(n). For k = 3, the variance is bounded below by a positive multiple of n and above by a constant multiple of nlog⁡nn\log n; the companion paper on random 3-SAT sharpens this to Θ(n)\Theta(n). The same upper bounds proved here hold after clipping at any fixed positive multiple of n.

Fluctuations of the satisfiability transition

Add independent random clauses to a Boolean formula until the formula becomes unsatisfiable. How much does the number of clauses at this first failure vary from one sample to another? For every fixed clause size k≥4k \ge4, we prove that its variance has order nn, where nn is the number of variables. For three-literal clauses the variance lies between positive constant multiples of nn and nlog⁡nn \log n.

A proper kk-clause is a disjunction of literals on kk distinct variables. Fix k≥3k \ge3 and n≥kn \ge k, and let C1,C2,…C_1,C_2,\ldots be independent uniform choices from the 2k(nk)2^k\binom{n}{k} proper signed clauses on nn variables. Signs are independent and fair; whole clauses may repeat. Put

Fm=C1∧⋯∧Cm,F0=true,Hn=min⁡{m≥1:Fm is unsatisfiable}.F_m = C_1 \wedge\cdots\wedge C_m,\qquad F_0 = \mathrm{true},\qquad H_n = \min\{m \ge1 : F_m\text{ is unsatisfiable}\}.

For a fixed B>0B > 0, the capped first failure time is Tn,B=min⁡{Hn,⌊Bn⌋}T_{n,B} = \min\{H_n,\lfloor Bn\rfloor\}. Each assignment survives a clause with probability 1−2−k1 - 2^{-k}, so

Pr⁡(Hn>m)≤2n(1−2−k)m.\Pr(H_n > m) \le2^n(1-2^{-k})^m.

Thus HnH_n is almost surely finite and has finite moments.

Theorem 1.1. Fix an integer k≥3k \ge3, and write

ℓk(n)={log⁡(en),k=3,1,k≥4,Uk=log⁡2−log⁡(1−2−k).\ell_k(n) = \begin{cases} \log(en), & k = 3,\\ 1, & k \ge4, \end{cases} \qquad U_k = \frac{\log2}{-\log(1-2^{-k})}.

There are constants Ck,ck>0C_k,c_k > 0 such that

Var⁡(Hn)≤Cknℓk(n)(n≥k),Var⁡(Hn)≥cknfor all sufficiently large n.\operatorname{Var}(H_n) \le C_k n\ell_k(n)\quad(n \ge k),\qquad\operatorname{Var}(H_n) \ge c_k n\quad\text{for all sufficiently large }n.

For every fixed $B > 0 there is Ck,B<∞C_{k,B} < \infty such that

Var⁡(Tn,B)≤Ck,Bnℓk(n)(n≥k).\operatorname{Var}(T_{n,B}) \le C_{k,B}n\ell_k(n)\quad(n \ge k).

If B>UkB > U_k, then also Var⁡(Tn,B)≥ckn\operatorname{Var}(T_{n,B}) \ge c_k n for all sufficiently large nn, with the size cutoff allowed to depend on kk and BB.

All constants concern fixed kk. The lower condition on the cap is substantive: an early cap can stop the process before its random transition. In the proof, it is enough to have integer caps Ln=O(n)L_n = O(n) with Pr⁡(Hn>Ln−1)≤1/4\Pr(H_n > L_n - 1) \le1/4 eventually; B>UkB > U_k is an explicit sufficient condition. This argument leaves a logarithmic gap for three-literal clauses; the companion paper [17] closes it and proves Var⁡(Hn)=Θ(n)\operatorname{Var}(H_n) = \Theta(n) for the uncapped proper 3-clause process.

The identity Pr⁡(Fm is satisfiable)=Pr⁡(Hn>m)\Pr(F_m\text{ is satisfiable}) = \Pr(H_n > m) turns these variance bounds into bounds on the transition window. Between any fixed probability levels η\eta and 1−η1-\eta, 0<η<1/20 < \eta< 1/2, its width is Ok,η(nℓk(n))O_{k,\eta}(\sqrt{n\ell_k(n)}). Chebyshev’s inequality also gives

Pr⁡(∣Hn−EHn∣≥tnℓk(n))≤Ckt−2(t>0).\Pr\left(\lvert H_n-\mathbb{E}H_n\rvert\ge t\sqrt{n\ell_k(n)}\right) \le C_k t^{-2} \qquad(t>0).

This is concentration about the finite-size expectation. The limiting threshold αk\alpha_k of [16], Theorem 1.1 identifies lim⁡nEHn/n\lim_n \mathbb{E}H_n/n, but supplies no bound on the bias EHn−αkn\mathbb{E}H_n-\alpha_k n at the fluctuation scale above. For k=3k=3, the separate companion [15], Theorem 1.1 proves that the limiting threshold α3\alpha_3 is a computable real.

Earlier work and the new estimate

The location and the width of a threshold are different questions. [12] proved a sharp threshold sequence for each fixed clause size, without asserting convergence of that sequence. [2] used a weighted second moment to locate the threshold within O(k)O(k) of 2klog⁡22^k\log2 as kk grows. [7] proved the predicted limiting threshold for all sufficiently large kk. Carenini’s paper [6], Corollary 1.2, made public on October 5, 2026, establishes the satisfiability conjecture for every fixed k≥3k \ge3. We credit Carenini with priority for the resolution of the satisfiability conjecture. The companion [16], Theorem 1.1 establishes a limiting location for every fixed k≥3k \ge3; its independent forcing argument gives the variance bound Ok(n1+2/k)O_k(n^{1+2/k}) for the capped last-satisfiable prefix min⁡(Hn−1,2k+1n)\min(H_n-1,2^{k+1}n) [16], Proposition 3.3.

For transition width, [18] proved an Ωk(n)\Omega_k(\sqrt{n}) separation of central quantiles in the independent proper-clause model. We convert that separation into the variance lower bound, keeping the integer endpoints so the argument allows atoms. Carenini [5], Corollaries 7.10–7.11, proves an Ok,η(n/log⁡n)O_{k,\eta}(n/\log n) window upper bound for fixed k≥3k \ge3, including proper independent clauses. Her subsequent paper gives the polynomial window bound Ok,η(n1/2+1/k)O_{k,\eta}(n^{1/2+1/k}) and the hitting-time variance bound Ok(n1+2/k)O_k(n^{1+2/k}) [6], Theorems 1.1 and 1.3; the renewed estimate, together with the Abbe–Montanari criterion, yields the limiting-threshold theorem credited above. The upper bounds here sharpen these fluctuation estimates. For k=3k=3, the companion [17] further removes the logarithmic loss in this paper’s upper bound.

Our upper bound uses the coordinate-omission form of the Efron–Stein inequality [4, 8]. Deleting one clause leaves its kk variables available for root-flip tests of the remaining solutions. When no other clause meets two of these variables, the kk tests are independent and use clauses of length k−1k-1; we account separately for such collisions. A set of assignments that is easily killed by those shorter clauses must also have a short expected lifetime under kk-clauses. The replacement of a shorter constraint by a block of native clauses has a qualitative predecessor in Friedgut’s half-cube argument [12], Lemma 5.7; sequential conditioning on a residual assignment set is developed in Carenini [5], Theorem 4.3 and Lemma 6.1. We prove a block estimate uniform in the number of variables and the block length. It also covers assignment sets that no single kk-clause can kill.

The main improvement comes after this replacement step. Instead of bounding the number of clauses incident to the deleted clause’s variables by a logarithmic cutoff, we retain that number as a random parameter. Its fixed moments are bounded. The proof must therefore use the incidence count without destroying the independence of the shorter-clause tests or of future ordinary clauses. Conditioning on the incidence pattern through the cap achieves both. Collisions involving two of the deleted clause’s variables are paid for by joint incidence and collision moments.

The route through the upper bound

Write L=⌊Bn⌋L = \lfloor Bn \rfloor. If deleting CiC_i while preserving the other clause indices delays the capped first failure by DiD_i, then

Var⁡(Tn,B)≤∑i=1LEDi2.\operatorname{Var}(T_{n,B}) \le\sum_{i=1}^{L} \mathbb{E}D_i^2.

The delay DiD_i counts the prefixes at which restoring CiC_i destroys satisfiability, so Di2D_i^2 counts ordered pairs of such prefixes. The problem is to control this occupation time.

Here is the shorter-clause estimate used for that purpose. A collection of clauses kills S⊆{0,1}uS \subseteq\{0,1\}^{u} if no member of SS satisfies every clause. Let qd(S)q_d(S) be the probability that dd independent proper (k−1)(k-1)-clauses kill SS, and let τk(S)\tau_k(S) be the expected number of independent proper kk-clauses through its first kill. For u≥ku \ge k, d≥1d \ge1, and β=k/(k−1)\beta= k/(k-1), we prove in Section 2 that

τk(S)qd(S)β≤Ckdβ.\tau_k(S)q_d(S)^\beta\le C_k d^\beta.

This estimate holds for every assignment set, with no lower cutoff on qd(S)q_d(S).

Section 3 connects this statement to clause deletion. Call the variables of CiC_i its roots, and fix them to the unique values that falsify CiC_i. Let SmS_m be the nonroot parts of solutions of the prefix with CiC_i omitted and the roots fixed this way. A clause disjoint from the roots is an ordinary kk-clause on the nonroots. A clause meeting one root and satisfied by that root hides a (k−1)(k-1)-clause: its nonroot part becomes a constraint when that root is flipped. If restoring CiC_i destroys satisfiability, each allowed root flip must fail. In the absence of collisions this gives kk independent tests killing SmS_m.

Conditional on the exposed incidence pattern, let ZZ be the number of clauses meeting the roots and put d=max⁡{1,Z}d = \max\{1,Z\}. The lifetime estimate bounds both the expected remaining duration of a deletion event and the total time spent at levels qd(Sm)≥aq_d(S_m) \ge a. Write q=qd(Sm)q = q_d(S_m). The kk independent tests contribute qkq^k, while the expected remaining duration costs a factor q−βq^{-\beta}. Integrating the resulting qk−βq^{k-\beta} over time costs a second lifetime factor: the expected occupation above level aa is bounded by a constant times a−βa^{-\beta}. The near-zero part of the resulting integral is therefore

∫ak−2β−1 da.\int a^{k-2\beta-1}\,da.

At k=3k=3, k=2βk=2\beta and the finite cap produces a logarithm; for k≥4k \ge4, k>2βk > 2\beta and the integral is bounded. Section 4 then averages the root counts and proves the capped upper bound. Exponential tails remove a sufficiently late cap. Wilson’s quantile bound supplies the separate lower-bound argument.

Section 5 removes a sufficiently late cap and records the exact first-unsatisfiable and last-satisfiable endpoint identities. Section 6 proves the lower bound, completing the variance theorem. Section 7 specializes the cap constants to three clauses and transfers the proper-clause concentration to the Poisson clause law used in the threshold companion. After that main argument, Appendix A determines the limits of the two estimates for arbitrary assignment sets. Appendix B compares proper-clause models at different sizes, and Appendix C gives a second three-clause proof based on prefix exposure and incidence truncation.

Survival of a set of assignments

The deletion argument will leave a set of assignments that must pass random tests of length k−1k-1. We need to relate the probability that those tests eliminate the set to its lifetime under clauses of length kk. This section proves the relation for every assignment set. Replacing a shorter constraint by a block of clauses of the original length has a qualitative predecessor in Friedgut’s half-cube argument [12] (Lemma 5.7).

Fix integers k≥3k \ge3 and u≥ku \ge k, and put

r=k−1,β=kk−1.r = k - 1, \qquad\beta= \frac{k}{k-1}.

A proper ss-clause, for 1≤s≤u1 \le s \le u, chooses an ss-element subset of the uu variables uniformly and then chooses independent fair signs on that subset. Clauses are independent, so a whole clause may occur more than once. A collection of clauses kills S⊆{0,1}uS \subseteq\{0,1\}^{u} when no member of SS satisfies every clause in the collection. For nonnegative integers d,gd,g, define

qd(S)=P(d proper r-clauses kill S),Rg(S)=P(g proper k-clauses kill S).q_d(S) = \mathbb{P}(d\text{ proper }r\text{-clauses kill }S), \qquad R_g(S) = \mathbb{P}(g\text{ proper }k\text{-clauses kill }S).

References

  1. [1]Emmanuel Abbe and Andrea Montanari. On the concentration of the number of solutions of random satisfiability formulas. Random Structures & Algorithms, 45(3):362–382, 2014. doi: 10.1002/rsa.20501. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1006.3786v1. Lemma 8 in arXiv:1006.3786v1, 18 June 2010.
  2. [2]Dimitris Achlioptas and Yuval Peres. The threshold for random k-SAT is 2^k log 2 − O(k). Journal of the American Mathematical Society, 17(4):947–973, 2004. doi: 10.1090/S0894-0347-04-00464-3. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0305009v2.
  3. [3]Mohsen Bayati, David Gamarnik, and Prasad Tetali. Combinatorial approach to the interpolation method and scaling limits in sparse random graphs. The Annals of Probability, 41(6):4080–4115, 2013. doi: 10.1214/12-AOP816. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/0912.2444v3. Version 3, 16 December 2013; Section 4, K-SAT case.
  4. [4]Stéphane Boucheron, Olivier Bousquet, Gábor Lugosi, and Pascal Massart. Moment inequalities for functions of independent random variables. The Annals of Probability, 33(2):514–560, 2005. doi: 10.1214/009117904000000856. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0503651v1. Equation (3.6) in the electronic reprint, arXiv:math/0503651v1.
  5. [5]Gaia Carenini. The scaling window of random k-SAT. Technical Report TR26-145, Electronic Colloquium on Computational Complexity, 2026. URL https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2026/145/. Also arXiv:2609.26222v1.arxiv.org/abs/2609.26222
  6. [6]Gaia Carenini. A polynomial scaling window for random k-SAT and a proof of the satisfiability conjecture. Technical Report TR26-229, Electronic Colloquium on Computational Complexity, 2026. URL https://eccc.weizmann.ac.il/report/2026/229/. Published 5 October 2026.
  7. [7]Jian Ding, Allan Sly, and Nike Sun. Proof of the satisfiability conjecture for large k. Annals of Mathematics, 196(1):1–388, 2022. doi: 10.4007/annals.2022.196.1.1. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.0650v3. Theorem 1 in arXiv:1411.0650v3, 15 April 2021.
  8. [8]Bradley Efron and Charles Stein. The jackknife estimate of variance. The Annals of Statistics, 9(3):586–596, 1981. doi: 10.1214/aos/1176345462. URL https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176345462.
  9. [9]John Franco and Allen Van Gelder. A perspective on certain polynomial-time solvable classes of satisfiability. Discrete Applied Mathematics, 125(2–3):177–214, 2003. doi: 10.1016/S0166-218X(01)00358-4. URL https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-218X(01)00358-4. See also the author manuscript dated 7 August 1998, Section 8.
  10. [10]Silvio Franz and Michele Leone. Replica bounds for optimization problems and diluted spin systems. Journal of Statistical Physics, 111:535–564, 2003. doi: 10.1023/A:1022885828956. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0208280v1.
  11. [11]Silvio Franz, Michele Leone, and Fabio Lucio Toninelli. Replica bounds for diluted non-Poissonian spin systems. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General, 36(43):10967–10985, 2003. doi: 10.1088/0305-4470/36/43/021. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0307367v2.
  12. [12]Ehud Friedgut. Sharp thresholds of graph properties, and the k-SAT problem. Journal of the American Mathematical Society, 12(4):1017–1054, 1999. doi: 10.1090/S0894-0347-99-00305-7. URL https://doi.org/10.1090/S0894-0347-99-00305-7. With an appendix by Jean Bourgain.
  13. [13]Francesco Guerra and Fabio Lucio Toninelli. The thermodynamic limit in mean field spin glass models. Communications in Mathematical Physics, 230(1):71–79, 2002. doi: 10.1007/s00220-002-0699-y. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0204280v1.
  14. [14]P. Hall. On representatives of subsets. Journal of the London Mathematical Society, s1-10(1):26–30, 1935. doi: 10.1112/jlms/s1-10.37.26. URL https://doi.org/10.1112/jlms/s1-10.37.26.
  15. [15]OpenAI. Computing the Random 3-SAT Threshold. OpenAI Math Release preprint OAI:Computing-the-Random-3-SAT-Threshold-September-27-2026, 2026.
  16. [16]OpenAI. A Limiting Satisfiability Threshold for Every Fixed Clause Size. OpenAI Math Release preprint OAI:A-Limiting-Satisfiability-Threshold-for-Every-Fixed-Clause-Size-September-25-2026, 2026.
  17. [17]OpenAI. Linear Variance of the Random 3-SAT Hitting Time. OpenAI Math Release preprint OAI:Linear-Variance-of-the-Random-3-SAT-Hitting-Time-October-5-2026, 2026.
  18. [18]David B. Wilson. On the critical exponents of random k-SAT. Random Structures & Algorithms, 21(2):182–195, 2002. doi: 10.1002/rsa.10050. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0005136v2. Corollary 4 in arXiv:math/0005136v2, 3 July 2002.

Paper details

vlnc:W_ygubr4aj
v1 · latestHistory (1)

published · Fresh — published within the last 30 days

Usage

views · 13

downloads · 2

A view counts once per browser per day, a download each time the PDF is requested.

LicenseRef-OpenAI-public

DOI · 10.83295/mnz8-emjq

Original source

  • Mathematics

unreleased internal OpenAI model · View statement →

Looking for related papers…
Contents